The deputies vote this Monday, March 20 in the afternoon on the motions of censure tabled against the government. Elisabeth Borne took responsibility for her government after the use of article 49.3 on pension reform. This is the last stage of the parliamentary journey of pension reform and the last chance for the opposition to reject this project. For the presidential camp, this day and the future look tough.
Two motions of censurefiled Friday, March 17 the day after the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, are submitted to the vote in the National Assembly on Monday: one from the National Rally, and a cross-party motion from the independent group Liot (for Libertés, Indépendants, Outre -sea and Territories).
The Nupes and the National Rally must vote for the latter, which should also be supported by certain deputies The Republicans opposed to the pension reform, even if Éric Ciotti, the president of the party, has given instructions not to vote motion of censure.
The question is: how many LR deputies will break this rule, and will an absolute majority be reached? They should be around thirty. This is not the most probable hypothesis. Moreover, in the majority, we want to be serene and even offensive by presenting this vote as a moment of ” clarity », where everyone will have to take their responsibilities.
Still, even if the government does not fall on March 20 and the reform is therefore adopted, the majority is weakened. Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, is in the hot seat. Emmanuel Macron, who is expected to speak, is under tension, with a significantly falling popularity rating.
Throughout the weekend, rallies were organized in the four corners of France to protest against the use of 49.3. Acts of violence have been observed and elected officials have been threatened during demonstrations beyond the control of the unions. The latter launched a call for a day of mobilization on Thursday March 23, after the vote on the motions of censure. Their objective: to show that, whatever the case, they do not intend to stop there. The pension reform page will not be turned on Monday evening. Neither politically nor socially.
What course will Emmanuel Macron take now?
If the last stage of the parliamentary course of the pension reform promises to be complicated for the executive, the really difficult maneuvers will begin afterwards for Emmanuel Macron. This episode will leave traces on the social and political level. Several options are available to the President of the Republic.
If the majority does not really fear the motions of censure of this Monday, March 20, a Renaissance parliamentarian considers the sequel with more pessimism. According to him, once this chapter of pensions is over, the National Assembly will enter a period ” latent motion of censure where it will become difficult for the government to pass any text. A blockage that would make a dissolution ” inexorable “.
At this time, this is not an option being considered. A minister believes that it would be giving “ a bonus at the National Rally “. There remain the tracks of a resignation of Elisabeth Borne and a reshuffle, as pledges of change. But to put whom in Matignon, to carry out what policy and with what majority?
So many subjects on which Emmanuel Macron is expected. A speech by the Head of State is planned. But when ? A deputy believes that we should not ” stay in levitation for 15 days “, when a senator thinks that the president must allow himself time to see how the situation is developing, in the street in particular, and concludes as if to reassure himself: “ He will find something. After the Yellow Vests, he found the great debate. »