Russia is splitting Wagner’s operations under the defense administration, believe researchers Tuomas Forsberg and Mikko Räkköläinen, who visited this morning.
The future of the Russian mercenary company Wagner is currently shrouded in darkness.
The researchers who visited in the morning on Friday think that most of the company’s operations will continue in one way or another, but no longer under the single “Wagner brand”. At least some of the functions will probably be decentralized to the Russian Defense Administration.
Wagner’s director Yevgeny Prigozhin died on Wednesday when the private plane carrying him crashed on the way from Moscow to St. Petersburg. According to unconfirmed information, the plane was deliberately brought down with explosives.
Dissertation researcher who followed Wagner closely Mikko Räkköläinen It is clear from the University of Tampere that the company cannot stay afloat for a long time without a leader. The company is important for Russia’s long-term foreign policy, he says.
For example, in Africa, in addition to military operations, Wagner has supported governments friendly to Russia and planned propaganda.
– From Russia’s point of view, this has made it possible to support friendly governments and still be able to say that official Russia is not involved, Räkköläinen told in the morning.
It’s not just about Wagner, reminds Räkköläinen. Prigožin has had other organizations that have specialized in, for example, influencing information.
– There has been a whole network of organizations, the center of which has been Prigožin. Now it will be interesting to see how this network of hundreds of companies and their obscure connections is managed to be transferred to another operator so that the patterns continue.
Even if Wagner disappears from the picture, the political relations between several African countries and Russia will remain, says Räkköläinen.
What will happen to Wagner’s forces in Belarus?
Also professor of international politics Tuomas Forsberg The University of Helsinki emphasizes the importance of Wagner’s foreign operations for Russia.
From the point of view of the war in Ukraine, Wagner’s role is minor, as the company’s operations there had practically been shut down shortly before the mass uprising at Midsummer. However, it is estimated that there are still a few thousand soldiers in Belarus.
– The big question is what will happen to Wagner’s forces, which are now in Belarus. Will thousands of soldiers stay there, or are they already preparing to return to Russia?
Some of Wagner’s troops have trained Belarusian soldiers. There is little information about other activities, and the company is not believed to have resources in the area for anything other than the maintenance of troops.
Confirmed information is still scarce about Prigožin’s death and its background. The Russian state media has treated the incident first and foremost as a plane crash.
However, many have interpreted the events as the Kremlin’s revenge for the rebellion project. It may be that the assassination of Prigozhin has been planned since the Midsummer Uprising, but they still wanted to keep him alive because of foreign policy goals.
– It wasn’t really possible to get rid of him right away, because then many projects and operations would have been ruined. It has only been expected that the time is ripe, Räkköläinen speculates.
– If you want to somehow rationalize this, then surely the armed forces wanted to make sure that there are reliable people and Wagnerians out of the chain of command, Forsberg estimates.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin expressed his condolences to the relatives of Prigožin and others who died in Turma on Thursday evening. He urged to wait for the investigation to be completed.