It is an event that could not fall at a more critical moment. The Munich Security Conference (MSC) opens this Friday, February 14 in Germany on Friday. Nicknamed the “Davos de la Défense”, this great annual meeting of the international Gotha of diplomacy should this year be largely centered around the war in Ukraine. The shattering statements this week of Donald Trump, who spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin and wishes to put an end as quickly as possible – even if it means sacrificing many of Kiev claims -, plunge Ukraine in a big blur .
Between American representatives who came in number, Ukrainian leaders responsible for defending their position and European officials looking desperately to make their voices heard, the Express takes stock of what to expect from these three days of this summit.
The United States in control
They come in number, as a sign of their desire to show who controls the situation. Many members of the new US administration are moving to Munich this weekend. Starting with the American vice-president JD Vance, who will be accompanied by the chief of diplomacy Marco Rubio, but also the American envoy for the White House for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.
Himself openly hostile to American support for Ukraine, JD Vance wanted to temper the American position after the thunderclap launched by Donald Trump and his call with Vladimir Putin. In an interview with Wall Street JournalAmerican vice-president JD Vance assured that the United States would have “at heart the sovereign independence of Ukraine” in future negotiations, and that “everything will be [it] On the table “, including” military pressure “on Russia. This Friday, he also assured that Europe should” of course “be associated with any peace negotiation on Ukraine. But the project should Staying appreciably the same: bringing together a peace agreement as quickly as possible between kyiv and Moscow, even if it means rehabilitating Russia on the international scene.
JD Vance is to pronounce this highly anticipated speech this Friday afternoon. He could announce “that a large part of American troops will be withdrawn from Europe,” said German diplomat Christoph Heusgen, who presides over the MSC on Friday.
Ukraine and the fear of emptiness
The sequence could have been positive for Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky is expected this Friday in Munich, where a meeting has been planned for several weeks with the American vice-president. The opportunity for the Ukrainian head of state to motivate the United States not to abandon its support for Ukraine, and to support it in possible peace talks.
Except that the shattering statements of Donald Trump have since passed by, making kyiv fear direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington, without real consultation of Ukraine. After this shock wave, the Ukrainian camp therefore plays its va-all. kyiv called for a “fair peace” and security guarantees from Europeans and Americans, including the sending of troops to guarantee peace. Volodymyr Zelensky also demands that the United States, which has been the main military support of his country since the start of the war, discuss first with Ukraine.
“And it is only after these meetings, after the development of a plan to arrest Putin, that he will be right to speak to the Russians,” said the Ukrainian president on Thursday. “Keep your head cold and do not be influenced by emotions. The interests of Ukraine are priority and will remain so,” the head of the Ukrainian presidential office Andriy Yermak said on Telegram.
Europe, to try to weigh
European representatives will also be present in number in Munich this weekend. We will find in particular the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Council Antonio Costa, or the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas. While a meeting of the G7 foreign ministers of foreign affairs is planned on the sidelines of the conference in Munich this Saturday, the leaders of French, German, Italian and British diplomacy should therefore in principle be in Germany.
Being present is one thing; To weigh on the negotiations that are treated right now around Ukraine is another. This is the whole challenge for Europe, sidelined by Donald Trump in the face-to-face he wants to establish with Vladimir Putin. France notably expressed its fear that the new American administration “gives up” to Russia, and Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Financial Times That “a peace that is a capitulation” would be “bad news for everyone”. The EU Kaja Kallas diplomacy was even paralleled between the current crisis and 1938, when the Munich agreements had led to the annexation of part of Czechoslovakia by Hitlerian Germany.
A symbol is particularly indicative of the little American consideration towards European leaders: the absence of an encounter between Olaf Scholz and JD Vance. The two men will however be good in Munich this weekend. But according to Politicothe American vice-president would have snubbed the German head of state: “We do not need to see him, he will not remain Chancellor long,” summed up his team with Politico. A Camouflet for the German Chancellor, it is true in very unfavorable tank in the polls for the legislative elections on February 23, but which is still for the moment the voice of Germany on the international scene. On the other hand, JD Vance should speak with the favorite to succeed Olaf Scholz in the coming weeks, the Curator Friedrich Merz. Who passes his first major diplomatic test there, he who has always ardently defended military support for Ukraine.
Russia excluded (for the moment)
It was Donald Trump’s surprise announcement this Thursday: the holding of a meeting this Friday in Munich with Russian representatives. “Russia will be with people there. Ukraine is also invited. I do not know exactly who will represent each country, but it will be senior officials from Russia, Ukraine and the United States” , the American president told journalists in the oval office.
This announcement, that the White House did not confirm when contacted by AFP, was quickly denied by the organizers of the MSC, who assured that they did not “accredited representatives of the Russian government”. “Discussions with the Russians are not envisaged,” said kyiv.
And it was ultimately Russia herself who said she would not have representatives in Germany. “Russian representatives are not invited to the Munich Conference […] It is a decision taken several years ago […] So there will be no representatives of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, nor other official Russian structures, “said spokeswoman for Russian diplomacy, Maria Zakharova, at her weekly press conference. If Donald Trump had simply spoken too quickly, or if it is necessary to see the symbol of his desire to impose Russia where it has been ostracized in recent years.