The 1.5 degree limit of the Paris climate agreement is about to be broken again. According to climate scientists, the possibility of staying below 1.5 degrees seems increasingly unlikely.
The current year has been the warmest in the history of measurements, according to the EU Copernicus climate service of information.
According to the Climate Service, the average temperature in 2024 was about 1.5 degrees higher than the average of the pre-industrial era (1850–1900).
Based on 11 months of data, researchers estimate that the current year’s average will rise to 1.6 degrees.
The researchers point out that November in particular has been unusually warm. In November, the Earth’s average surface temperature was 1.62 degrees higher than in pre-industrial times.
The last time the heat record was broken was in 2023. At that time, the final biscuit temperature was 1.48 degrees warmer compared to the average of the pre-industrial period and 0.60 degrees warmer compared to the long-term, i.e. 1991–2020, average.
According to climatologists, the development points to a worsening of the climate crisis.
In 2015, a total of 196 countries or entities committed to the Paris climate agreement, which aimed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees in order to avoid climate disasters in the long term.
The feared 1.5 degree warming came true already in February. However, it does not mean that the border has been broken permanently. Average temperatures are monitored for decades.
However, according to EU Copernicus climate scientists, the possibility of staying below 1.5 degrees seems increasingly unlikely in the long term.
Extreme weather phenomena are intensifying
The intensification of extreme weather phenomena caused by the climate crisis is already clearly visible. In 2024, various parts of the world struggled against heat waves, storm winds and floods.
Particularly strong forest fires raged this year in North and South America. The western parts of the United States, Canada, the Amazon rainforest and the Pantanal wetlands are affected by the drought.
Hurricanes Helene and Milton battered the United States, and exceptional flooding was reported in central and southern Europe.
The economic damage caused by extreme weather events was reflected in gigantic human and material damages. For example, the insurance company Swiss Re estimated last week that natural disasters caused a total of more than 310 billion dollars in losses this year.