L’Express: Are we further away than ever from a peace solution in the Middle East?
Jean-Yves Le Drian: I am very worried. Since the resumption of fighting, we have been in a tragic impasse. Adding the terrible – what we see today in Gaza – to the terrible of October 7 – this unspeakable barbarity – will lead us to long-term chaos, with risks of conflagration which will make the situation explosive.
We see it in the West Bank, with the unacceptable violence by settlers against Palestinian civilians that can bring the conflict to this area. There is also the risk of conflagration from northern Israel, on the border with Lebanon. Very firm messages were sent to Hezbollah and Israel about the seriousness of the consequences if a second front opened. Vigilance must be total, because we note temptations on both sides to widen the conflict.
Furthermore, the war aims announced by Israel are not clear. “What is the desired end state?” as the military say. We do not know. Showing the desire to eradicate Hamas and free the hostages must translate, at some point, into an end-of-intervention scenario.
At what point will we say “that we have eradicated Hamas”? It is not only a terrorist organization, but also an ideology that is increasingly receiving support from Gazans and Palestinians in the West Bank and elsewhere. The fact that Israel is bombing southern Gaza after inciting the population to move towards this area has sparked growing outrage. The situation will become more and more intolerable and turn world public opinion against Israel, if it has not already done so. Israel seems to be falling into the trap set for it on October 7. It’s normal for him to defend himself. But it risks transforming a possible tactic into a strategic defeat.
Can the strategy of eradicating Hamas carried out by Israel in southern Gaza bear fruit?
The current violence will only further the ideology of Hamas and Islamize the Palestinian cause, making terrorists appear as heroes. To break this process, there must be a truce, in Israel’s own interest, to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe from creating generations of terrorists.. Suffering combined with the absence of a political perspective inevitably produces despair and violence among a people.
Does a peaceful solution involve the return of the Palestinian authority to Gaza?
After the war, the occupation of Gaza territory by the Israeli army would be unacceptable. A return of the Palestinian Authority seems to me the only solution to manage internal security requirements and avoid complete chaos.
There will necessarily be two phases. First, the management of Gaza at the end of the fighting – in terms of security, humanitarian and food aid, and reconstruction. There is no other choice than to entrust this mission to the Palestinian Authority. It is an institution that is internationally recognized. Then, it will be up to the Palestinians, with the support of the United Nations and Arab states, to ensure that a democratic process gives it new legitimacy. But this cannot be done without the desire to transform the truce into a ceasefire.
What do you think are the prerequisites for starting a peace process?
First, a truce which allows the delivery of humanitarian aid. Then, a ceasefire which can only last if two fundamental principles are validated by both parties: Israel has the right to its security; and the Palestinians have the right to a state. These two principles are the imperative starting points of any political process. Today, neither side accepts it. Hence the importance of putting pressure on them to be recognized on both sides.
The two-state solution is a difficult path, even considered unachievable by some. However, there is no other. We therefore have to work on it over time. There is so much suffering on both sides that both sides will, I hope, eventually realize this urgent necessity. The international community will have to exert as much pressure as necessary.
Could Iran be tempted to enter further into the conflict?
For now, the crisis in the Middle East constitutes a strategic victory for Iran. Firstly because the conflict has halted the dynamic of normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Then, because the October 7 attack shook the idea of Israel’s invulnerability. This reinforces the Iranian narrative that armed struggle pays. Finally, Iran is capitalizing on its support for the Palestinians, since the Palestinian question has been put back at the center of the debates.
Consequently, despite thunderous declarations, Iran has, in my opinion, neither an interest in a general conflagration in which it would be a party, nor in a direct confrontation. Why would he do it? He sees his influence growing as the fighting descends into horror in Gaza. At the same time, it can quietly continue its nuclear, ballistic and space programs, while strengthening its complicity with Russia and finding arrangements with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
However, the risks of conflagration are twofold. That of the accident, of the slippage, which would set off a spiral that would be impossible to stop. And that of certain actors sponsored by Iran, tempted to play their own card. This does not appear to be Hezbollah’s intention. But the situation remains no less alarming.
Can the scenario of a war between Israel and Lebanon, as in 2006, occur?
It is absolutely necessary to avoid any slippage, which is why pressure is being exerted by everyone. Unfortunately, Lebanon is a state that is falling apart, without a President of the Republic, with a government reduced to managing current affairs, a blocked Parliament and a collective lack of will to break the deadlock. I hope that the seriousness of the situation will cause a real start. It is all the more necessary as tensions with Israel increase in the south of the country.
What role can Arab countries in the region play?
There can be no end to the conflict without Arab partners around the table. For the moment, they are refusing to do so until there is a ceasefire. The urgency is therefore to initiate a political process on the basis of two States. When this happens, I am convinced that Arab countries will assume their responsibilities.
A political process in the region also requires the decisive action of the United States and the participation of the Europeans. However, the recent American veto of the resolution initiated by the Secretary General of the United Nations in favor of a ceasefire risks limiting the American administration’s capacity for influence and initiative.
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