Russia’s war in Ukraine has been going on for almost a year and a half and has left deep traces in Russia, where they take every chance to paint the West as the perpetrator, says Carolina Vendil Pallin, who is the research leader at the total defense research institute, FOI.
– It has become a society permeated by this war and the fight against the West. That is what is being fought in Ukraine, she says.
Fragile system
Midsummer weekend’s armed uprising in Russia, where the paramilitary Wagner group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on Moscow, may have created increased instability, according to Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi.
– This illustrates the fragility of the system. It may not be a big turnout for Prigozhin, but neither is it for the Kremlin. People seemed to be standing and waiting to see how this would go, he says.
In Russia, there are several other paramilitary units that are formally subordinate to Moscow. Carolina Vendil Pallin believes that political coups are usually carried out by people who are close to those in power, and then it can happen quickly.
– As long as Putin is in control it works, but the moment there is a doubt within the elite whether Putin is the right person to lead the country, it will look different, she says.
Can get extremely messy
Joakim Paasikivi agrees and states:
– The sharks circle the Kremlin, every sign of weakness becomes an opening.
Carolina Vendil Pallin emphasizes that over the course of 20 years, Russia has eroded the state’s monopoly on violence and undermined the country’s institutions, which risks having devastating consequences.
– Once it becomes unstable, it can become enormously messy, she says.
How has Russia been affected by 16 months of full scale war? Hear the experts in the clip above.