This is the decisive day for the Barnier government. The motions of censure filed against him are debated this Wednesday, December 4 from 4 p.m. in the National Assembly before being voted on in the evening. The RN and the NFP are able to bring down the Prime Minister.
Are we going to witness the fall of Michel Barnier’s government? Response this Wednesday, December 4 with the vote on motions of censure in the National Assembly. The deputies will meet to debate the texts aimed at overthrowing the government from 4 p.m. before deciding for or against the retention of the Prime Minister in the early evening, between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. according to media estimates. The situation, very risky for the executive, is a direct consequence of recourse to 49.3 by Michel Barnier who, to adopt the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), engaged the responsibility of his government on Monday December 2 .
Two motions of censure were tabled immediately and must be debated this Wednesday. The deputies will examine the texts at the same time, but they will first vote on the text tabled by the New Popular Front (NFP), signed by the presidents of the four left-wing groups, Mathilde Panot (LFI), Boris Vallaud (PS), Cyrielle Chatelain (Ecologists) and André Chassaigne (PCF), in addition to 181 other deputies. The second motion of censure is carried by 138 deputies of the National Rally (RN) and its Ciottist allies. But this will not be voted on if the first succeeds in overthrowing the government, a scenario which is highly probable, the RN having announced that it would vote on motions “wherever they come from”.
Since the announcement of the motions of censure, Michel Barnier and his ministers have defended their maintenance, and their vision concerning the 2025 Budget, saying they are still open to compromise, then raising the threat of “chaos” and the responsibility of the latter on the deputies who will vote for censure. Strategies which a priori were not enough to make the opposition forces flinch. The Prime Minister, however, continues to believe that the failure of a motion of censure “is possible” as he said Tuesday evening in the news of TF1 and France 2.
The conditions for the motion of censure to be adopted
The rule is simple: for a motion of censure to succeed and overthrow the government, it must be adopted by the absolute majority of deputies sitting in the Assembly on the day of the vote, i.e. 289 if all elected officials are present. The NFP’s motion of censure appears capable of gathering the necessary number of votes. Almost all of the 192 left-wing deputies intend to vote on the text, only a few socialist votes could be missing, “around ten” according to the account of a parliamentary advisor of the common base shared at Politico. Even if these withdrawals were confirmed, they would not succeed in changing the situation.
Because the real chance of success of the motion of censure tabled by the NFP lies in the vote of the 124 deputies of the RN and its 16 Ciottist allies of the UDR. Marine Le Pen like Jordan Bardella confirmed the position of the RN which is ready to vote for censorship of the government even on the left’s text. The president of the far-right party recalls that it is a question of voting “a motion of rejection and distrust of the government (…) regardless of the political party which is at the origin” and that “this is not an alliance with the left” as the government wants us to believe.
The NFP and the RN with its allies seem to be the only opposition forces wanting to vote on the motion of censure, but arithmetically this is enough to overthrow Michel Barnier: with 192 and 140 deputies on both sides, this ensures 332 support for the text , much more than the absolute majority threshold.
What will happen if the motion of censure overthrows the government?
The effects of a motion of censure are immediate, so much so that the Barnier government will instantly resign in the event of adoption of the text by a majority of elected officials. Michel Barnier will remain at Matignon and his ministers in their respective positions until their replacement is appointed, but they will no longer have the powers conferred by their functions. They will be content to handle current and urgent matters. As for the PLFSS adopted by 49.3, it will be automatically rejected.
Emmanuel Macron will be responsible for appointing a new Prime Minister who will be responsible for proposing a bill for the 2025 budget. While the budget must theoretically be voted on by December 31, article 45 of the organic law relating to to the finance laws (LOLF) allows the country to operate without a government and without a voted budget if the deadline is not respected. This “joker” is based on a “special bill authorizing it to collect existing taxes”, until the vote on a next finance bill at the start of next year. In other words, by continuing to apply the 2024 Budget.
13:05 – Why is the NFP motion of censure voted on first?
Of the two motions of censure, it is that of the NFP which will be voted on first. But why? Quite simply for a question of numbers: it is the one of the two which brings together the most signatories. It was voted for by 184 deputies, against 138 for that of the RN.
12:19 – Who will speak before the vote on the motion of censure?
The vote on motions of censure will be preceded by debates and speeches by the different political forces in the National Assembly. It is first the speaker of the NFP motion of censure who will speak to defend the text and support the idea of censoring the government. The rebellious MP and president of the Finance Committee, Eric Coquerel, could play this role according to Le Monde. It is then the speaker of the motion carried by the RN who will continue with the same objective.
The floor will then return to the one who is threatened, Michel Barnier. The Prime Minister will take the podium to defend himself with a speech subject to no time limit. After him, the nine other groups of the National Assembly (all except those from which the speakers come, a priori LFI and the RN) will speak to explain their position vis-à-vis censorship, if they are for or against. Each group will have at least 10 minutes to speak, and at least 5 minutes of speaking time will be granted to a deputy representing non-registered elected officials. The debates must therefore last at least 2 hours.
11:30 – What time is the vote on the motion of censure scheduled?
The deputies are expected at the National Assembly at 2 p.m. for the question session to the government then for the vote on the end of management bill for 2024 which is part of the Budget. But it is at 4 p.m. that elected officials will begin to debate the two motions of censure. Several speeches by the different groups of deputies are planned according to a protocol order and could last nearly, or even more, two hours. Around 6:30 p.m., once the debates have ended, the deputies will be invited to leave the hemicycle to vote in the lounges of the Palais Bourbon on the first motion of censure, that tabled by the NFP. The Assembly session will resume half an hour later, around 7 p.m. for Yaël-Braun Pivet to announce the result of the vote.
If the first motion is adopted, a vote on the second will not be necessary. But if the text is rejected, the same procedure will be repeated to allow elected officials to vote on the RN motion before returning to hear the results in the hemicycle. The future of Michel Barnier’s government will therefore be set between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.