The Islamic Republic of Iran perfectly embodies what we could call an ogni, an unidentified geopolitical object. Established in 1979 on the ruins of the dynastic empire of the pro-Western nationalist shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, by a religious dignitary, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, this regime in principle theocratic presents an apparently contradictory policy.
Internally, as is often the case in fanatical dictatorships, it is against civilians, women and minorities in particular, that state violence is unleashed. Misogynistic and phallocratic to the last degree, the Islamic Republic imposes on half the population a moralistic and virilistic screed that is unbearable for millions of women, by practicing a hideous policy of rape and assassinations, which are no longer even disguised. In action, the Revolutionary Guards and the moral police, the literally fascist armed arm of the regime; the courageous “Women, life, freedom” movement, although bloodily repressed for many months, has not died out, just as religious and societal distrust against a regime from another age is growing. Women (like homosexuals), thirsty for freedom and equal rights before respect and the laws, are not the only ones to suffer the wrath of Tehran; Kurdish, Azeri, Baluch and Arab cultural activists, but also ethnic Persians who follow Sunnism – a cult not even recognized in Iran! – are subject to surveillance, obstructions, even abuses and murders. Iran thus holds the sad world record in terms of capital executions in 2023, and these are only official ones and not extrajudicial assassinations disguised as accidents…
Proxy war
But outside, this state violence appears to be more… measured in the face of formidable armies. As much as it is easy to martyr young women in sordid prisons, playing fair against the Israeli or Pakistani armies seems more complicated… In fact, the regime has others wage war, but does not practice it itself. even. Since its advent in 1979, despite a multi-daily anti-Zionist vulgate maintained ad nauseam with hysterical threats about “little Satan” and the burning of Israeli flags (which make a large part of the youth sneer), never the slightest body of troops nor the not a single missile has hit Israeli soil from Iran! Viruses in the Hebrew State’s cyberspace? Certainly, but this is even less sufficient to qualify this practice (now very common) as “war” as it turns out to be very ineffective.
Let’s broaden the spectrum: in Iraq, facing Daesh or other anti-Iranian Sunni militias, in Lebanon of course with Hezbollah, in Syria in support of Assad, in Yemen with the Houthis now, Iranian military leaders are delivering , train, sometimes supervise, but only fight very occasionally; the cannon fodder and the targets of costly retaliation are the others… During the decade of war in Syria (half a million killed), Hezbollah, subservient to Tehran, lost several thousand fighters, the Iranians a few only tens!
Iranian caution
That said, facing Israel since the massacre of October 7, 2023, the exercise is reaching its limits. Because, in the days following the killing (which Tehran rejoiced while claiming to have nothing to do with it!) and the start of the IDF’s response, Hezbollah launched a low-intensity war, propelling shells, rockets and missiles on the Upper Galilee. Obviously, the militia subservient to Iran thus obeys its creator and master, flying to the aid of Hamas by opening a second front, but not powerful enough – it believes – to risk attracting the wrath of the bombers Israelis. However this time, faced with a traumatized public opinion and a general staff in a vital quest to reclaim a dissuasive credibility, the Hebrew government deals very hard blows to the enemy, no longer only against Hezbollah but the senior officers and Iranian materials; This is how we must understand the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which recently killed a military luminary, Mohammad Zahedi, and several other officials. At the time of writing, Tehran has reacted no more than when the United States killed General Ghassem Soleimani in 2020; the Islamic Republic is led by fanatics, not by imbeciles ignorant of the balance of power…
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