The polls are cornering him. His troops are abandoning him, his face is disappearing from campaign posters. Emmanuel Macron doesn’t care: the head of state remains deaf to his camp’s calls for silence and is multiplying his speeches in view of the legislative elections. Here, a podcast to justify his dissolution of the National Assembly and to slam his rivals. There, a letter to the French people.
In this missive, Emmanuel Macron outlines his ideal future government. This would bring together “republicans of diverse sensibilities who have known how to oppose the extremes through their courage”. What do the polls promising the National Rally to reach an absolute majority on July 7 matter: the President of the Republic is waiting for a mouse hole to regain control. “This return to the people can lead to this coalition, or even constrain it”, hopes a close friend. It is the Macronists’ lifeline. “If we return to 150, and 50 LRs hang around with 80 socialists, why not agree on a few big things?”, a Renaissance candidate recently confided. And save the country from a deadly deadlock.
Ultra-offensive rhetoric
Despite some customary consultations, the head of state has never attempted to set up this coalition after the 2022 legislative elections. No alliance offer has been submitted to the right – an unreliable and turbulent partner – to snatch the forty seats missing from the National Assembly. He tried it two years later. But it is a demonetized president who appeals to the “political leaders of the forces of the Republican arc”. His invitation is strewn with strategic ambiguities, as the president reveals contradictory faces. Tails: the apostle of the gathering. Front side: the pack leader, adept at ultra-offensive rhetoric. Emmanuel Macron on Monday criticized the programs of the “two extremes”, suspected of leading France to “civil war”. Thus sending the National Rally and the New Popular Front (NFP) back to back.
So, who should you ally with? The Republicans (LR) are weakened by the agreement between Eric Ciotti and the RN. The executive maintains an ambivalent relationship with the socialists and ecologists, moderate components of the NFP. In this campaign, he hides them behind the LFI scarecrow in order to frighten the center-left electorate. “Those who say ‘Don’t worry, after these legislative elections, the left will redivide and the social democrats will separate from the rebels’, did the same thing to the French during the European elections, mocked Gabriel Attal on France 5 on Monday. They didn’t wait 24 hours to recreate the Nupes and get back behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon.”
This strategy will end on July 7. The presidential camp will then bring these elected officials out of anonymity, waiting for a split. “What will the elected representatives of the NFP do?, asks a minister. There is a major socialist subject.” “The social democrats have joined an electoral alliance, adds a faithful of Emmanuel Macron. I do not think that François Hollande, who formed the CICE [NDLR : le Crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l’emploi]or agree with a program involving 290 billion euros in spending.” Infrequent before the election, potential ally afterwards: Macronie invents the protean left. The case of the former President of the Republic sums up this political schizophrenia. He is cited as an example of a reasonable left, but Gabriel Attal supports his opponent LR Francis Dubois in Corrèze to make him pay for his attachment to the New Popular Front.
“Macron, shall we help him?”
Such a coalition is currently hypothetical. An absolute majority in favor of the National Rally would nip it in the bud. The pollsters’ projections do not depict an Assembly in the hands of the presidential camp, the Republican right and the moderate left. If such a scenario were to occur, it would be necessary to convince 289 elected officials with orthogonal convictions to form an unprecedented alliance. To ally after a campaign where the demonization of the adversary serves as the main argument. A challenge, as the culture of coalition is non-existent in France, hampered by the majority vote. The balance of power dominates. Already, the left shows the muscles. “What do we do if Macron does not want an RN Prime Minister? We help him? We will have to impose a Prime Minister and cohabitation on him”, assumes a socialist hierarch. “We will not go into a government of national unity, unless we lead it,” adds another. “To what extent? That is the question.”
Should we stay away from a dying power? Joining an alliance at the risk of establishing the far right as the only alternative? Can we be guilty of an institutional blockage? These questions illustrate the dilemma faced by political forces. The presidential election is the keystone of our electoral life. Quietly, it has already started. No one wants to make a pact with a president at the end of his accelerated reign, with contagious unpopularity. The left already sees the treason trial of its rebellious “friends” coming. On the right, Laurent Wauquiez does not want to be responsible for Emmanuel Macron’s balance sheet. He judges that he benefits from a comparative advantage over his rivals Edouard Philippe and Bruno Le Maire, heirs of the head of state. So why board the Titanic?
Philippe wants to take Macron out of the equation
“Constrain.” The Elysée, on the other hand, nourishes the hope of a coalition imposed by the French. Let it be said: it will not be the work of Jupiter but that of the sovereign people. To oppose it would go against his will. No one has any interest in being accused of tying up Parliament in the name of their personal ambitions. “Those who take actions to render Parliament impotent will not have much chance of prospering in future elections,” warns a Horizons leader. An outgoing LR deputy tries to summarize: “The responsible people will have to meet but the negotiation will be held in the Assembly, not at the Elysée. Without Macron.”
Edouard Philippe also wants to remove the head of state from the political equation. The former Prime Minister assures that he wants to create a “new parliamentary majority”, which will operate differently from the “old presidential majority”. Freer, and less hegemonic. The mayor of Le Havre has been proclaiming for months his wish to bring together the “Mitterrandian left” and the “conservative” right with a view to 2027. These anticipated legislative elections allow him to put this ambition into practice. A life-size test. Behind the Assembly, the Elysée is never far away.
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