The clock is ticking and the government still does not know what awaits it in the National Assembly. Prime Minister Michel Barnier must indeed present to deputies the bill on the financing of Social Security this Monday afternoon. A budget which could be rejected or provoke a motion of censure in the event of the government forcing its way. In any case, Michel Barnier and his team are moving forward in a minefield.
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Faced with an imminent threat of censorship on the Social Security budget, the Prime Minister spoke on this subject on Monday morning with the leader of the RN deputies, reports a press release from Matignon. This same press release specifies that the government has “ committed to ensuring that there is no delisting of medicines », in 2025, acceding to a new request from National gathering.
Marine Le Pen also indicated this Monday, December 2, that she had “filed an amendment on the renunciation of the deindexation of pensions” in the Social Security financing bill, the adoption of which would lead her RN group to renounce voting on a motion. of censorship against Michel Barnier. “ It’s up to the government to accept it or not to accept it. », continued the leader of the far-right deputies after a meeting of her troops, shortly before the start of the examination of the text by the National Assembly.
Until the last moment Michel Barnier consulted: his Ministers of Economy and Budget this morning, the presidents of the government alliance groups at midday.
The Social Security budget, which was the subject of an agreement between the National Assembly and the Senate in a joint committee, arrives at the National Assembly for discussion Monday afternoon.
What will the Prime Minister’s speech be?
This is where the mystery lies: will he acknowledge the fact that censorship is inevitable and prepare his teams for an early departure? Or find a solution to get around the threat of opposition. This solution exists, there are even several: do not submit the PLFSS (Social Security Financing Bill) to the vote and send the text back to new negotiations… It could also count on the prior rejection of the text, a motion having been tabled to this effect by the socialists. The text would leave for a new parliamentary shuttle. On the side of the New Popular Front, however, it is estimated that there are only losing strategies, with the Prime Minister having to face the fact that he has failed to find majorities.
But we could still escape a motion of censure, even if Michel Barnier has stated several times that he would undoubtedly use article 49-3 to force the passage of the Social Security budget.
But ultimately, it is above all a question of knowing what political narrative the Prime Minister wants to submit to the French: that of a government forced to completely review its budget which he has affirmed in recent weeks was the only way possible for the country’s finances. Or leave and let the opposition and the President of the Republic manage to avoid leaving the road…
Also listenAt the RN, training for members, in anticipation of possible early elections