The green transition is accelerating. This is shown by the IEA’s latest report “World energy outlook”, which analyzes the climate impact of the energy sector. Investments in green energy have increased by 40 percent since 2020. Electric car sales have also increased sharply. In 2020, one in 25 cars sold was an electric car, this year it is one in five. More than 500 gigawatts of green energy is expected to be added in 2023 – which is a record, writes the IEA. – If you go back 5-10 years and what you thought about solar and wind power then you would be extremely surprised at how quickly things have gone, says Johan Kuylenstierna, director general of the research council Formas and former chairman of the Climate Policy Council. Solar, wind and nuclear power Coal, oil and natural gas, which for decades accounted for 80 percent of the energy supply, have begun to lose shares, and in 2030 those types of energy are expected to make up 73 percent of the energy supply, if one starts from the steps towards a green transition that the countries of the world taking right now. Behind the changes are major shifts in the world’s energy markets. The biggest impact is China, which has started and is expected to continue expanding solar and wind power. In addition, weaker growth is expected in China than in the last decade, which contributes to lower energy demand. In several leading market economies, decisions have been made to reduce fossil energy sources, for example by extending the life of nuclear power plants or building new ones. – It has been a fantastic development. But if you put green energy in relation to the total energy sector, green energy is still a very small part. These are incredibly large quantities we are talking about, says Kuylenstierna, and continues: – The report also emphasizes that we must increase energy efficiency. The culmination may have been reached this year Carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are expected to reach their culmination in the mid-2020s, but it may have already happened this year, according to the scenario in the report. But there are a number of uncertainties. Johan Kuylenstierna says that it is no longer technology that poses obstacles to the transition, but political and economic uncertainties. – Now it’s more about willingness and daring to invest, rather than that it wouldn’t be possible to invest. So you have to be an optimist but also a realist. The total carbon dioxide emissions are still at a level that would mean a 2.4 degree global temperature increase in 2100, which would still mean severe climate change, the IEA writes. Emissions from, for example, land use, drained wetlands and other climate impacts that are not directly related to the energy sector are not included in the IEA’s report.
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