During May Day week, the most watched movie in China was a new action movie, called Born to Fly in English. It is about Chinese fighter pilots who fight against invading enemies. The enemies’ homeland is not mentioned by name, but they speak American English.
The film is mistakenly reminiscent of the American Top Gun films, with the difference that the heroes are top Chinese pilots.
The film was produced in close cooperation with the Chinese People’s Army PLA. Of course, the US Navy also had an influence on the creation process of the original Top Gun movie.
In authoritarian China, patriotic fiction films have been a key form of opinion shaping in recent years. That’s why the fighter movie worryingly reflects the dangerous current situation.
A real threat of war in the South China Sea
Right now, relations between the USA and China are worse in real life than they have been in decades. Again, this applies to all of us, because the development of relations between these two superpowers may be the most important issue of this entire century.
It has a decisive influence on world peace and the development of the world economy, but also on whether humanity can survive global challenges such as climate change.
During this spring, the situation has become very dangerous.
In April, China once again practiced the blockade and occupation of Taiwan. China considers Taiwan a rebel province belonging to it.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping demanded in March that China’s armed forces should “dare to fight.” Officers responded to the manager’s call.
– Our troops are ready to fight at any time. We resolutely crush the intentions of the Taiwan separatists and the interference of all foreign powers. We dare to fight and we dare to win! Chinese Armed Forces Officer Zhang Benming rumbled during the April exercise.
Western experts on China’s military policy have warned that Xi’s speeches should generally be taken seriously. China has even seen signs of preparing for war. Population shelters have been strengthened in the country and security of supply issues have been considered in the event of a conflict.
China has a dispute over the control of areas in the South China Sea and maritime rights with numerous states in the region. The plot of Born to Fly is also related to this.
The danger is that the war will start accidentally
In recent weeks, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to the defense of its Asian allies. At the end of April, the USA trained with its ally the Philippines, e.g. sinking enemy ships with missiles.
China does not look favorably on the warming of military relations between the Philippines and the USA.
The risk is especially that the tightening of the situation would accidentally lead to a great power war, which no one really wants. The United States would like to set up a special communication arrangement with China, which would prevent, for example, the outbreak of a nuclear war as a result of a misunderstanding. Such a “hot line” was in use during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the USA.
China has so far been reluctant to such an arrangement.
China is rapidly equipping itself
China’s official military spending is already well over $200 billion a year, far more than that of America’s Pacific allies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea combined. The Stockholm peace research center Sipri estimates that China’s actual military spending is significantly higher than reported, closer to 300 billion dollars a year.
Still, militarily, the USA is still superior, its military spending is almost three times that of China. The military spending of the USA and its allies far exceeds the combined level of China and Russia.
China is developing its navy at breakneck speed. In terms of the number of battleships alone, it already has the largest warship in the world, approx. 340 different combat-ready warships. The US Navy has 296 combat-capable ships.
In practice, of course, the US Navy is still clearly stronger, for example, it has 11 aircraft carriers in service and a more efficient submarine fleet. But China’s third aircraft carrier is already in trial use and more are coming in the next few years.
China wants to become the most powerful country in the world
China does not hide the fact that it wants to become the most powerful country in the world in the coming decades, by all measures.
China’s economic growth this millennium has been wild. Yet the economy of the United States and its allies is still significantly larger than that of China and its close partner Russia combined. But China’s potential is huge, with four times the population of the United States.
The USA is still the world’s largest economy, but China is already ahead of it in GDP adjusted for purchasing power. The price level of the country is taken into account in GDP adjusted for purchasing power.
The USA now sees China’s rise as a direct threat to its own strategic position. In China, on the other hand, it is seen that the United States is unfairly trying to slow down China’s development.
The United States has sought to prevent China from obtaining particularly high-level microchips that it cannot manufacture itself. For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the tightening relations between the major drivers of the world economy strongly threaten the economic development of the entire world.
Western economy disconnected from China?
Recently, a new buzzword, decoupling, has quickly entered political discourse. It means disconnection and now it means the West’s disconnection from the Chinese economy.
European and also American politicians and diplomats assure in public that the intention is not to get rid of China. Still, the topic is talked about all the time.
Speaking in Beijing in April, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that the world is closely watching the means by which China is striving to become the world’s strongest superpower by the middle of the century.
– It depends on what kind of economic interdependence Europe is ready for with China. We paid a heavy price for our energy dependence on Russia. It is well known that you shouldn’t go for the same bargain twice, Baerbock said.
The situation has been compared to the Cold War. However, the comparison is lame, because the camps of the enemies of the Cold War, the USA and the Soviet Union, were economically relatively little connected to each other.
Instead, the economies of China and the United States are now strongly interconnected.
Brave New World Order?
The war in Ukraine is also tightening the gap. China and Russia are especially united by the desire to change the world order. Western countries like to speak so-called of the rule-based world order. China and Russia consider this world order to be unfair and created on the West’s terms.
China constantly talks about not interfering in the internal affairs of countries. Still, China has not condemned Russia’s large-scale attack on Ukraine.
In reality, China seems to rather want a world order based on the balance of power and the interests of the great powers.
Both superpowers are now feverishly courting other countries for a closer alliance. But the rest of the world doesn’t seem to want to choose between China and the US. For example, Brazil, India and South Africa have begun to emphasize non-alignment, in the style of the Cold War.
President Joe Biden has emphasized that he wants to gather the democratic countries in a new front. China does not believe in democracy or human rights as they are seen in the West.
That is why the superpower competition of this century is also about values and the social system.
Sources: The Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, The New York Times, The Atlantic, Reuters.