Visually, there is nothing enchanting about it. A rectangular outdoor unit, often white or gray, with a built-in fan. A part inside the home, same dull colors and same shapes, the all-purpose look of an electric water heater. However, the heat pump (PAC) has many advantages to promote in the energy transition. It “teaches us to link security, transition and social justice by reducing as much as possible the friction between these three imperatives”, write two researchers from the Geopolitical Studies Group of the Ecole Normale Supérieure, Léo Camilli and Pierre Charbonnier, in a text with a convincing title, Praise of heat pumps.
Emmanuel Macron also seems convinced. During the presentation, at the end of September, of his “ecological planning” which should allow the country to halve its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the president announced the production in France of one million heat pumps per year by the end of its second five-year term – compared to less than 300,000 currently. The head of state thinks big and fast. Too much ? “The million in 2027 is technically impossible,” assures Jean-Paul Ouin, general delegate of Uniclima, the union for thermal, aeraulic and refrigeration industries, which is aiming for 2030.
Whatever. This ambitious objective should allow the emergence of a major French sector. However, it is going through a paradoxical situation: the dynamic market which has supported it since 2017, with an average annual growth of 14%, is experiencing a downturn. “We recorded a drop of 5% at the end of August, agrees François Deroche, president of the French Association of Heat Pumps (Afpac) and marketing director at Daikin, one of the specialists in the sector. An inflection point due to external factors: the price of energy, the vagueness around certain government support, anxiety-provoking international news…” Without forgetting a construction market in crisis. So many elements which are not without consequences for certain manufacturers. Saunier Duval, for example, has had to resort to partial unemployment since October 20 due to lack of sufficient orders. “It’s the trough of the wave, but we will have better days,” reassures François Deroche.
Double effect for transition
Optimistic, players in the sector can in any case rely on effective technology. If the issue today revolves around the air-water model, the operating principle of all heat pumps is similar: that of an upside-down fridge. The heat pump transforms calories taken from the environment – air, water, land – into heat. “For 1 kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity in your heat pump, you recover 3 to 5 kWh of thermal heat. Whereas for 1 kWh of gas, you will only have 1 kWh of heat. The effect is therefore doubly interesting for the energy transition: on the one hand, we can power the system with electricity – which can be decarbonized; on the other hand, the device will pump calories into the ground or into the outside air which are, by nature, renewable”, explains Frédéric Wurtz, research director at CNRS and co-director of the Energy Transition Observatory.
“It’s a remarkable product, carbon-free, but more complicated than the boiler,” recognizes Jean-Paul Ouin. This has not slowed down the shift of historic industrialists in the sector, attracted by this new outlet. “The movement is launched, to varying degrees,” continues the general delegate of Uniclima. The proliferation of announcements attests to this. The Atlantic company, for example, recently unveiled an investment of 150 million euros for the construction of a new factory in Saône-et-Loire, its third dedicated to heat pumps in France. In June, the Intuis group inaugurated the extension of its site in the Somme. “This is a first step, we will continue in this direction,” confides Philippe Dénecé, its general director. According to the International Energy Agency (AIE), all the CAP projects currently in the pipeline would allow Europe to become the world’s leading production zone. And France, which has 30 dedicated industrial sites, could be the continental leader, according to the projections of the European lobby of the sector.
“Pure French manufacturing of PAC is extremely rare”
However, he will have to overcome many obstacles. Because upgrading this sector is not easy. “The main problem is that it is unstructured,” comments Benoît Calatayud, director of energy transition at Capgemini Invent. In addition to the need to look into the reuse and recycling of these products, which are still underdeveloped, the expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation points out two serious pitfalls. The first: an urgent need for labor on production lines, and technicians for installation and repair – 30,000 people by 2027 according to Elysée calculations. “We will have to find them, train them and take them out of school,” agrees François Deroche, from Afpac. So work on the attractiveness of a sector, which is sorely lacking.
Second challenge: finding an alternative for the supply of certain components, in particular compressors or electronic chips, the vast majority of which come from Asia. “As soon as Europe and France achieve their production objectives, there should not be too many difficulties in relocating this type of element on the territory. But today, it is a little premature at the moment. considering the volume passed”, admits the president of Afpac.
“Pure French manufacturing of PAC is extremely rare,” confirms Philippe Dénecé. The general director recalls that Intuis benefits from the Guaranteed Origin France label, and that around 70% of the added value of its heat pumps comes from France. A threshold that French companies are struggling to exceed. To stimulate this “made in France” and consolidate national ambition in this area, the government supports the market and increases financial aid mechanisms. The objective is twofold: to attract businesses to the territory – as with a tax credit provided for in the green industry law – and to encourage the French to purchase, via the MaPrimeRenov’ system, in particular. The price, in fact, can put off individuals: it is often between 10,000 euros and 15,000 euros, and sometimes rises to more than 20,000 euros. That is 3 to 4 times more than that of a gas boiler.
“If the product is excellent, there are, in fact, situations where we will not be able to install it,” says Jean-Paul Ouin, from Uniclima, in the face of the agitation of the moment. Above all, installing pumps will be of no use as long as the renovation of the buildings is not carried out upstream. “There is a little less emphasis on this. However, we must not dissociate the two objects, otherwise the effectiveness of the CAP is reduced,” warns Benoît Calatayud. When it comes to energy transition, there is no miracle solution. “Heat pumps have a relevant techno-solutionist dimension, but they must be used intelligently and accompanied by a comprehensive package of measures,” says researcher Frédéric Wurtz. That is to say, think about a strategy of flexibility – heating during off-peak hours – and sobriety – master the temperature instructions. Otherwise, beware of the rebound effect.”
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