Promoting Finland’s NATO membership alone is possible, but unlikely. For example, the United States could accept Finland as a member without Sweden, says research doctor Iro Särkkä.
Finland’s primary goal is still to apply to NATO at the same time as Sweden, experts say in an interview with aam. For the time being, Turkey has canceled the February tripartite negotiations on the ratification of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership.
Turkey protested that the Swedish government did not prevent a demonstration in front of the Turkish embassy in Stockholm on Saturday, in which a far-right Rasmus Paludan burned the Koran, the Muslim holy book.
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan according to Sweden there is no point in waiting for Turkey’s support for NATO membership.
Foreign minister Pekka Haavisto (green) told in an interview that Finland may have to reconsider promoting the NATO application at the same time as Sweden, if Sweden’s application seems to be stalling.
The countries’ simultaneous membership is still the primary goal, Haavisto emphasized.
The statement attracted attention in Sweden, and Haavisto clarified to the Swedish media that he meant a situation where either Finland or Sweden would be permanently excluded from NATO membership.
Experts: “A common problem for the whole of NATO”
Promoting Finland’s NATO membership without Sweden is a possible, but unlikely scenario, says the research doctor of the Institute for Foreign Policy Iro Sarkkä.
– Finland must keep all possibilities open. I believe that Haavisto was referring to this unlikely, but possible option, says Särkkä.
Director of the research college of the University of Helsinki Tuomas Forsbergin it is certain that Finland has contingency plans to promote membership.
– The first plan includes the fact that these other plans are not discussed. When a politician speculates on something, it is read that plan B has turned into A.
Forsberg considers it problematic for NATO as a whole that one member state is able to prevent significant decisions on which the member states have already reached a consensus. Both Sweden and Finland have also communicated that it is about the credibility of the entire union, he says.
– If, for example, the NATO Council should approve Article 5 (mutual defense obligation of the member states), can Turkey say again at that stage that it will not do this either, Forsberg ponders.
Canceling the joint NATO process between Finland and Sweden would break NATO’s unity, says Särkkä. Both countries meet NATO’s membership criteria with rare clarity. The countries’ membership would also give NATO the opportunity to deepen defense cooperation throughout the Nordic countries.
The United States could only accept Finland as a member
Erdoğan may possibly delay the acceptance of Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership until after the Turkish presidential election. The elections will be held on May 14.
Särkä thinks it is important that the discussion between Finland, Sweden and Turkey is maintained. It is good for the situation to calm down now, he says.
Among other NATO countries, for example, the United States could agree that Finland would become a NATO member on its own, Särkkä estimates. However, the United States has very systematically said that Sweden must also become a member.
– I believe that (the United States) will be very disappointed if Sweden is not qualified to participate.
Watch the entire broadcast at this link.
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