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Russia’s hybrid attack with refugees against Finland is due to Vladimir Putin wanting to increase his support ahead of the presidential election in March 2024.
This is what Russian political scientist Margarita Zavadskaya claims:
– In this way, the Russian propaganda can point out that “the West is not friendly, they don’t even let refugees in”.
Since yesterday Friday, Finland has only kept one border station in the far north of the country open to Russia, as a reaction to the Russians starting to bus refugees to the border with Finland.
The border stations further south are closed.
The refugees are asylum seekers from the Middle East and Africa. When they arrive at the border, they do not have valid papers, which means that they are not allowed into Finland.
Russian political scientist Margarita Zavadskaja, who lives in Finland and researches democracy issues, interprets the Russian hybrid attack as part of the preparations for the Russian presidential election in March 2024.
– The Russians provoked the Finns, and the Finns reacted in the way the Russians expected. The trick worked, says Zavadskaya to Aftonbladet.
Propaganda purposes
– The border closure gives Russian propaganda advantages, the propagandists can point out that “the West is not friendly, they don’t even let refugees in”. There are many narratives the Kremlin can spin around this situation. And it can be important during the election campaign before the presidential election, says Margarita Zavadskaya.
The Russian propaganda conceals half the truth, namely that refugees were actively bussed to the Finnish border, provided with bicycles and sent off towards the border.
In Russian state media, it appears that Finland has suddenly closed the border, despite the fact that the Russian side has done nothing at all.
This is how it sounded, for example, when the Russian political scientist Yuri Svetov was interviewed by Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda on 21 November. He claimed that the Finns had a secret goal with the border closure:
– For the Finnish government, it is important to show that they are on their toes, they are new members of NATO. That is why they are doing everything to cut off Russia.
– They have a secret hope that the border closure will cause so much outrage among ordinary Russians that “necessary political changes will occur”, Svetov said, rabidly quoting a Finnish diplomat who had hopes that Russians would revolt.
Putin’s plan
A few days later in Murmansk, 24 miles from Finland, Governor Andrej Tjibis claimed that regional Russian authorities had stopped foreign nationals from crossing the Finnish border.
Tjibis also claimed that the Russian authorities are following all legal protocols despite “Finland acting unfriendly and provocative when they close their border posts”, according to the exiled Russian newspaper Meduza.
Political scientist Margarita Zavadskaya. Photo: Private
Margarita Zavadskaya notes that the closed borders affect not only Putin-loyal Russians, but also Russians critical of the regime, in terms of the view of Finland and the West:
– The Russian authorities do not recognize any hybrid attack or provocation. And the Russian population agrees, their reaction so far is “what are the Finns doing?” They see the border closures as a sign of hostility towards Russia, which could help Putin in the presidential election, says Margarita Zavadskaya.
FACT Finland’s border with Russia
Finland has nine border posts with Russia. Since Saturday, the Vaaliimaa, Nuijamaa, Imatra and Niirala border crossings have been closed.
The Raja-Jooseppi, Kuusamo, Salla and Vartius crossings are still open.
The decision applies from 18 November 2023 to 18 February 2024.
Finland’s 1,340 kilometer long border with Russia is the longest in Europe.
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FACTS Civilian hybrid attacks
Hybrid warfare is attacks that combine traditional military and civilian methods. The non-military hybrid attacks can be targeted information campaigns, disinformation or financial pressure.
“Migration flows are not a hybrid threat in themselves, on the other hand, when a state actor uses refugee flows as a method to influence another actor in a hostile way, it could be seen as part of a hybrid strategy” says Niklas Nilsson, researcher at the Norwegian Defense University previously told TT.
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