According to information from Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the Chinese armed forces have been putting a strategy for years that would allow you to take control of the island of Taiwan. All, without direct confrontation between the troops. This strategy, according to the newspaper, would consist in surrounding the island and cutting it from the world, in order to “strangle it to the submission”.
If the Chinese army was enlarged and modernized under the presidency of Xi Jinping, it has never been subject to a real armed conflict. Most experts believe that the Chinese armed forces are not ready for an amphibious invasion through the Taiwan Strait, 177 kilometers wide, made difficult to navigate by difficult maritime conditions, cliffs and swamps that would complicate a landing. “In addition, the Taiwanese anti-annual missile systems, some supplied by the United States, constitute an important deterrent”, points the Wsj.
A blockade would not present these difficulties. The army has already shown several times that it was capable of it, surrounding the island of its ships. “The more China is preparing, the more the risk increases that Beijing decides to pass without notice from military maneuvers to war,” he said now.
Worrying simulations already underway
Different strategies would have been imagined by the American Pentagon, international experts as well as the Taiwanese executive, whose president would have recently chaired simulations thanks to “table war games”, according to the newspaper. For experts, Chinese military exercises include clues to the strategy to which Beijing would proceed. Last October, a record number of 125 Chinese military aircraft, including hunters, helicopters and drones participated in large -scale aeronaval exercises simulating a Taiwan blockade, completely surrounding it, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense. Among them, 90 military and coast guard ships, accompanied by several thousand soldiers.
The Chinese army described these maneuvers as work preparation exercises, including land and sea strikes as well as port blockade. “In the blockade scenarios envisaged by the United States, Taiwan and others, as soon as the Chinese air assault begins, his navy-the largest in the world, with more than 370 ships-is already in motion,” explains the Wall Street Journal. According to the Pentagon, six nuclear submarines launchers of ballistic missiles are also likely to participate in a direct conflict with the Taiwanese navy.
China largely has military resources to surround Taiwan: around 1,900 hunters, 500 bombers and 3,000 missiles capable of reaching the island. Not to mention the drones, identified as an expanding force in the Chinese army and a source of concern for the Taiwanese government.
Energy and food dependencies
Taiwan’s main flaw lies in its energy and food dependence outside: the island depends on imports for 96 % of its energy, including oil, coal and natural gas. It also imports 70 % of its diet. The interception of ships carrying Taiwan’s vital resources, and the sabotage of its energy supply lines would thus constitute a royal path for Beijing, in order to force the island to submit to its authority. “Such a forty would probably start with Beijing’s announcement of new rules imposing inspections on ships entering Taiwan, potentially targeting the port of Kaohsiung, the largest on the island,” imagines the Wall Street Journal.
Another probable angle of attack, this time points the Economic Timesmain Indian economic daily: cyberguerre. “Each great Chinese military exercise near Taiwan is accompanied by waves of cyber attacks targeting government systems and communication networks,” points out the newspaper. Before highlighting the highlighting of Taiwanese vulnerability “when underwater internet cables were mysteriously cut in 2024”.
Can Taiwan defend himself?
In an attempt to retaliate in the event of an encirclement, Taiwan organized a five -day military exercise in March, “and a next simulation will be based on the hypothesis that China is preparing an invasion for 2027”, details the American media. However, the fate of the island and its inhabitants may not be played on the battlefield. Because more than the preparation of the Taiwanese army, it is the attitude of the American president, ally of the small republic, which will influence the calculations of Beijing. Because for the American newspaper, no doubt: such a military maneuver “would cause a military response from Taiwan, forced President Trump to decide if the US military must help defend the island, disrupt world trade and push European nations to impose severe sanctions against Beijing”.
The response of the United States is nevertheless more than uncertain, according to the Economic Timeswhich notes that Washington’s position on Taiwan has always been deliberately ambiguous. “The unpredictable foreign policy of former president Donald Trump has shaken the alliances,” raises the newspaper about the recent suspension of American support for Ukraine. In the case of Taiwan, a similar decision on Taiwan could embrace Beijing.