Captain Antti Pihlajamaa, a research officer at the National Defense College, estimates that Russia is looking for a new red thread for its attack on Ukraine.
The Ukrainian capital, Kiev, may be under more severe military pressure in the coming days. This is the assessment of the research officer of the National Defense College, Captain Antti Pihlajamaa.
– Now there are signs that Russia may try to intensify the blockade of Kiev in the next few days, Pihlajamaa tells by phone.
However, he does not believe in a significant change in the very next few hours.
Airport attacks have both military and symbolic significance
On Saturday morning, Russia destroyed the Vasylkivi air base south of Kiev. Russia also launched attacks on Ukrainian airports yesterday and Friday.
According to Pihlajamaa, the attacks on airports have both military and symbolic significance.
The attacks south of Kiev will, at least to some extent, directly affect the ability of the Ukrainian Air Force to operate.
During the airport attacks in the western part of Ukraine, Russia is also trying to show that it will be able to operate at least in some way throughout Ukraine.
Surprises may come
During the attack, which lasted more than two weeks, Russia has not been tactically successful in all its efforts. Pihlajamaa estimates that there have been difficulties in managing and coordinating operations.
What matters now is whether Russian forces will be able to improve their operations.
– There are a lot of question marks, and surprises can happen, Pihlajamaa says.
Pihlajamaa believes that Russia is carefully considering the occupation of Kiev. He considers it more likely that Russia will seek to put pressure on Ukraine through some limited operations in addition to the siege.
– Even if Russia gets imprisoned or killed by the president Zelensky, would this be enough to overthrow Ukraine in the end? Pihlajamaa reflects.
The blockade of Kiev swallows a lot of troops
According to research officer Antti Pihlajamaa, it is difficult to completely besiege Kiev. The area of the city is large, so Russia needs a lot of troops to blockade.
– It is questionable how tight the encircling ring can eventually be formed.
The length of the siege ring surrounding the entire city would be another hundred miles.
– This swallows so many troops that the current number of Russian troops may not be enough, Pihlajamaa estimates.
Ukrainians have continued to work closely with each other. This complicates the efforts of the Russians.
There are no signs of bending in Ukraine
Russian attacks have also continued to target civilian targets across Ukraine. The situation is particularly dire in the southeastern port city of Mariupol.
Mariupol has been besieged by Russian forces for days. There are still hundreds of thousands of people in the city whose situation is desperate.
Saturday was again to try to evacuate the city.
As Russia’s ground attack has not progressed as expected, Russia is trying to find a new red thread for the entire operation.
– By bombing various sites and besieging cities, Russia is trying to push Ukraine so narrowly that it will achieve the desired results. There are no signs of Ukraine’s bending, Pihlajamaa says.
Russia also shared its forces in the south
Russia has made the fastest progress in southern Ukraine. There, too, Russia has not been able or willing to create a clear focus on the operation.
Russia has divided its forces in the south towards Mariupol on the one hand, and more recently in the direction of Mykolaiv and possibly Odessa on the other.
This can be seen to some extent undermine the overall impact of the attack.
– We are present everywhere, but nowhere can we strike with all our might, Pihlajamaa says.