– The weather is now the most important determining factor in war, says the researcher Nikolai Mitrokhin.
Already last year, he was of the opinion that after the middle of February it would be impossible to carry out a winter attack because of the weather. In March-April, the land with black soil is already impassable.
Surprises are still possible.
– The idiocy of the Russian generals should not be underestimated. They are capable of doing imaginative things, adds Mitrohin.
Ylen Russia correspondent Heikki Heiskanen reached the Russian researcher Mitrohin from the University of Bremen in Germany, where he works as a visiting researcher at the Eastern European Research Center.
The parties are digging into trenches
Docent of Military Sciences, Aleksanteri Institute Visiting Researcher Ilmari Käihkö says in an interview with that Russia’s ongoing operation is a major attack only in quotation marks.
– It hasn’t looked very big. The front line has shortened and both sides have concentrated more troops on it, says Käihkö.
At the same time, they have started digging in trenches. Both are also troubled by a lack of equipment.
According to Mitrohin, Russia was preparing for an attack, but found that the soldiers did not have enough winter equipment or even armored vehicles. In addition to this, the shortage of artillery ammunition restrains military operations.
– The parties are now consuming so much ammunition that they cannot continue hostilities with the current strength, Mitrohin estimates.
The shortage of ammunition is already visible on the battlefield
Käihkö reminds that Russia used huge amounts of ammunition last year, which has now forced it to reduce the use of artillery fire.
Both researchers remind that both Russia and Ukraine’s western backers are trying to increase ammunition production. However, the amount of ammunition used in artillery concentrations has been such that, for example, the production of Europe and the United States for a month is enough, according to Käihkö, to only cover Ukraine’s needs for a few days.
– If both sides run out of ammunition, the intensity of the war will decrease and the front lines will become more permanent, says Käihkö.
According to Mitrohin, Russian troops fought in 20 directions at the beginning of the war, but now battles are fought in only 5-6 areas, says Mitrohin. He considers it likely that hostilities will weaken.
– It may mean a decrease in the number of deaths, but it does not mean that there will be peace, says Mitrohin.
Positional warfare benefits Russia
Käihkö reminds that the situation that develops like this benefits Russia more than Ukraine, which is forced to launch a counterattack in order to achieve its goals.
– You can see from the map that Russia occupies just under a fifth of Ukraine. Ukraine has liberated about half of the territories occupied by Russia since February of last year, says Käihkö.
Mitrohin estimates that Ukraine will not be able to fight back all the territories that Russia conquered in the attack it launched in February 2022.
What are the Kremlin’s intentions of conquest?
According to Mitrohin, the Kremlin’s intentions can be deduced from the fact that “money is poured into Crimea and the reconstruction of Mariupol”, but not, for example, into Severodonetsk.
Käihkö believes that assessing the course of the war is premature.
– It is possible that Ukraine will be able to return to the borders of February 2022, says Käihkö.
However, he adds that it is not an easy task, and there is no certainty that the Ukrainian army will be able to do this.
This depends on both Western support for Ukraine and what Russia does.
According to Käihkö, Russia’s minimum goal may be to keep the land connection between the Donbas region and Crimea in its possession.
For Ukraine, war is a matter of existence
– This could be enough for Putin to sell as a victory for his own people, says Käihkö.
– But Donbas is not completely under Russia’s control at the moment either.
For Ukrainians, war is a matter of existence. Käihkö reminds that the support Ukraine has received from the West has not been sufficient when Russia still occupies part of the country.
According to Mitrohin, dependence on aid from the West is also a problem for Ukraine:
– If the United States is ready to write a two-billion-dollar check every week for ammunition and equipment, Ukraine can continue fighting on the current scale, says Mitrohin.
The continuation depends on the permanence of Western countries’ support and Ukraine’s success on the battlefield.