Friday 13 October may seem like an unlucky date in advance. However, it does not have to be in terms of inflation, at least if the big banks’ inflation forecasts are to be believed.
When Statistics Norway (SCB) presents the statistics for September, more and more people now believe in a sharp decline where the rate of inflation slows down significantly. Handelsbanken assesses that the rate of price increase on an annual basis according to the so-called CPIF measure, i.e. adjusted for interest rate changes, should amount to 3.7 percent.
In that case, it would be the second month in a row with a sharp decline after the August figure landed at 4.7 percent.
Wider price suppression
In a comment, Handelsbanken writes that they are now seeing wider price suppression, not just mainly on electricity. The warm weather has also driven down energy prices further, which have even been negative at times. Despite the changed inflation situation, the bank still assesses that the Riksbank will raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points in November.
Nordea also believes in a similar development, where it is predicted that CPIF inflation will be 3.8 percent at an annual rate in September. The Nordea economists also believe, however, that the Riksbank will still choose to make another interest rate increase, to 4.25 percent.
The Riksbank’s inflation target is 2.0 percent.
Several European countries have recently reported subdued inflation, in Germany, for example, inflation amounted to 4.5 percent in September.