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full screen Pekka Haavisto (politically unaffiliated, in the center of the picture) and Alexander Stubb (Samlingspartiet, on the right of the picture) must now balance their campaigns to attract the middle voters and not scare away their primary voters. Archive image. Photo: Markku Ulander/Lehtikuva/AP/TT
The battle between Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto is not decided – even if Stubb has the lead.
Ahead of the second round of the presidential election in Finland, there will now be a battle for middle voters, according to political expert Jon Järviniemi.
Only a few percentage points separated the first Alexander Stubb (Samlingspartiet) from the second Pekka Haavisto (unaffiliated) when the election results were ready on Sunday evening. Stubb got 27.2 percent and Haavisto landed on 25.8 percent.
Since 1994, when the presidential election in Finland became a direct popular election, the person who won the first round has been elected president in the second.
– Based on that, Stubb has an advantage. But the result of the first round is quite historic as it is the most even between the top contenders. Haavisto thus has a chance. Now it’s up to him to ride on that profit to create a “hype”, says Jon Järviniemi, PhD student in general political science at the University of Helsinki.
Balanced campaign
Haavisto, whose party is The Greens but who is running as an independent, will get the votes of the red-green bloc. But it will not be enough, according to Järviniemi.
– He must also be able to appeal to the so-called center voter, who is a little unsure, who feels neither super right nor left. Then it is about Olli Rehn’s (unattached) votes of around 496,000.
Haavisto has previously claimed that there is “not a drop of red in me”. He must continue with that, according to Järviniemi.
– At the same time, he has to find a balance. Otherwise, there is a risk that the left-wing bloc will stay at home.
It’s about personal choice
Stubb is also competing for the eliminated candidate Rehn’s votes. He also has True Finns’ Jussi Halla-aho’s voters to lean on – but he has to be careful.
There is a risk that Stubb scares away voters who voted for him in the first round. In addition, the election is largely about the person – and Stubbs and Halla-aho’s personalities attract different kinds of voters, Järviniemi believes.
However, the differences between the candidates’ foreign and security policies – what is on the president’s table – are relatively small.
– It’s about Finland having a tradition, a spirit of consensus when it comes to foreign and security issues.