Western neighbors fear that Belarus is masterminding huge waves of border crossings. Thousands of Wagner soldiers also cause a headache.
On Monday in Warsaw, the Baltic countries and Poland will discuss the possibility of completely closing their borders with Belarus. The countries see two current threats in Belarus in particular, Ylen’s Estonian editor estimates Rain School.
First, Belarus may organize waves of third-country nationals crossing the border into neighboring Western countries, as it has done in the past.
– This is a real problem. 19,000 illegal border crossing attempts have been prevented in Poland this year, and 6,000 in Latvia as well, Kooli told in the morning on Monday.
Secondly, the western neighboring countries consider the soldiers of the mercenary company Wagner staying in Belarus as a threat. There are estimated to be a few thousand of them there.
Poland and Lithuania have already closed some border crossings. In addition, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have moved soldiers to their border areas.
Although Estonia does not have a common border with Belarus, it is known to have Russia as its neighbor. So there may be a similar situation ahead as it is currently in relation to Belarus.
At this point, no concrete decisions are expected from Warsaw on closing the borders in the near future. Instead, the meeting countries strive to create a clear mechanism in case Belarus’ behavior starts to threaten the national security of its neighbors.
Belarus still plays a role in trade between China and Europe
It is difficult to objectively assess the concrete threat posed by Belarus at the moment, says the research doctor Kristiina Silvan From the Foreign Policy Institute. Poland and the Baltic countries seem to consider the threat serious.
– I could see that there is some internal politics of these countries involved, Silvan said on Monday in the morning of .
According to Silvan, Belarus and its partner Russia are trying to create internal political tensions and imbalance. He interprets that the countries meeting in Warsaw expect various provocations from Belarus and not a direct attack.
Nonfiction writer familiar with Belarus and editor-in-chief of Helsingin Sanomat Jussi Niemeläinen emphasizes that the security political situation in the country’s borders has changed in any case.
The Baltic countries, Poland and the West more broadly thought for a long time that supporting Belarus’ independence from Russia would increase the region’s security. This was reflected in the period of softening of relations between Belarus and the West in 2015–2020.
– The popular uprising changed this, and the security situation in the entire region was shaken. In the fall of 2020, Belarus practically became a vassal state of Russia, Niemeläinen told in the morning.
If the Baltic countries and Poland decided at some point to close the borders completely, it would be some kind of humiliation President of Belarus Aljaksandr Lukashenko, estimates Niemeläinen. On the other hand, Lukashenko’s grip on society would tighten even more.
Silvan reminds that, for example, China’s exports to Europe still go partly through Belarus. If the borders of Poland and the Baltic countries close, Belarus’ trade would be completely dependent on Russia.