As Iran’s domestic politics spark outrage, the Islamic Republic is trying to emerge from its diplomatic isolation. Reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, resumption of ties with Morocco and Egypt, exchange of prisoners with the United States… How can we understand this change in foreign policy? What are the regime’s motivations? Interview with Houchang Hassan-Yari, professor of political science at the Royal Military College of Canada and specialist on Iran.
RFI: While for a year a large wave of protests seems to be weakening the regime of the Islamic Republic inside the country, relations with the outside world, particularly with the countries of the region, seem to be improving against all expectations. How to explain this situation ?
Houchang Hassan-Yari: It is not against all expectations that the improvement of relations with certain countries in the region is occurring. I would say that it is because of the weaknesses of the Iranian regime, under the pressure of the demonstrators who continue their revolt. In the country, the economic situation is disastrous. The political situation is exceedingly difficult for the regime, because even the people who defended it, the same revolutionaries who were part of the government in the past, have begun to distance themselves. Thus, in Iran, the economic, political and social situation is deplorable. And internationally, isolation is very difficult, sanctions are extremely effective and there is also the question of corruption with numerous embezzlements in Iran. All these factors weaken the regime both internally and on the international scene. To get out of this isolation and pressure, instead of acting internally and improving relations between the regime and the people, the authorities prefer to continue the repression and open some doors internationally.
Is the improvement in relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates a solid achievement or a diplomatic facade?
It is above all a façade relaxation. When it comes to improving relations with countries in the region, we must be careful. There is a very practical reason why the internationally isolated Islamic Republic of Iran is seeking change. She began to consider different options with the help of China, so the meeting with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia happened. Saudi Arabia also needed this improvement. We know that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a plan to boost his country’s economy. To do this, he must eliminate any external threats and focus on them. So far, the main threat comes from the Houthi rebels. In March 2022, Houthis attack Saudi Aramco refinery with drones. This attack created a huge panic in Saudi Arabia and internationally, because Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil exporter. The Saudis therefore do not want to see the same type of attacks repeated. This is why, by addressing the Islamic Republic through China, they are trying to remove this threat from the Houthis, because Iran has a lot of influence over the latter. In this context, the Saudis have agreed to restore relations with the Iranian regime, which is extremely happy about it. This gives him some credibility and allows him to tell his own people that he is not isolated and that he is establishing good relations with his neighbors, including Saudi Arabia. and the United Arab Emirates. Therefore, the need is generated by both the Islamic Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. However, I am very pessimistic about this rapprochement, which is not, I believe, based on a desire of the two countries to do so. They are forced to do so, which is why the attack on Monday September 25 [le long de la frontière entre le Yémen et l’Arabie saoudite, NDLR] during which Houthi rebels killed two Bahraini officers, shows two things: either the Islamic Republic has lost its control over the Houthis, or the Houthis are doing what they want without following the line established by Tehran. Now that another attack has taken place by the Houthis on Saudi territory, it really shows how fragile and vulnerable this rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran is.
What is to be gained by countries resuming talks with Iran?
When we say that countries are discussing with the Islamic Republic, it is important to specify what type of discussion it is. These discussions are not normal. The European Union, for example, continues to discuss with Iran, but not in a friendly context. They discuss to raise the nuclear issue, but also in the hope of forcing the Islamic Republic to change its behavior inside the country. Last year, the European Parliament adopted by a large majority a resolution calling on the European Council toinclude the Revolutionary Guards on the list of terrorist groups. Relations between the European Union and the Iranian regime are therefore not normal. They are not based on mutual respect and interest. For their part, the Americans are also addressing Iran because of the nuclear issue, and not to sign new economic cooperation or political exchange agreements.
As for Morocco and Egypt, these countries arrived after Saudi Arabia. They see that Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with the Islamic Republic is a kind of appeasement. They too want to repair their relationships. And here too, I am not sure that the Islamic Republic really wants to have a normal relationship with Cairo or Rabat. What is truly important and forms the basis of the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy is the expansion of Shiite influence. This is what happened whenin 2013 civilian flights were restored between Iran and Egypt after more than thirty years of interruption: several Egyptians were invited and many, if not all, of them were paid in one way or another by the Islamic Republic to go to Iran. When they were in Iran, the authorities showed them a lot of propaganda about Shiism. In other words, the Iranian regime wanted to contribute to the growth of the tiny Shiite minority in Egypt. This is why they are trying to normalize their relationship with this country.
Some relationships are still based on mutual interest, like with Russia for example…
It is obvious that both the Russian government and the Iranian government are sanctioned. They are under great pressure. Putin cannot leave Russian territory because he is accused of crimes against humanity. Having relations with Russia is therefore not necessarily a positive point for Iran, but the regime has no other choice. As the Islamic Republic is isolated, it has to reach out to other countries and the latter are very happy about it. Russia, for its part, has been using Iran as a card in its negotiations with the Americans and Europeans for several decades. This is what we notice today with the war in Ukraine and the delivery of drones to Russia. There is also China which benefits from Iran because it can have another Muslim country on its client list. If we look deeper into the issue of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic, we see that the situation is disastrous, because the foreign policy does not help the Iranian people in any way.
Moreover, the Islamic Republic is now a member of what I call “the club of dictators”, which brings together the Chinese leader, the Russian leader, the Venezuelan leader, certain South American dictators… In this sense, we We must be careful when we claim that the regime has relations with many countries. We must look at each individual case to understand the nature of this relationship and the context in which it occurs.
On the other hand, Iran appears determined not to give in to international sanctions over nuclear proliferation. Why this deliberate refusal to collaborate?
The answer is extremely simple: the government is looking for a nuclear bomb. If a country seeks or wants to have a nuclear program for peaceful purposes, it opens the door to the IAEA, which is part of the United Nations, and asks for its help. However, Rafael Grossi, the agency’s director, said he was not satisfied with the Islamic Republic’s behavior becauseshe does not collaborate as part of the Iran nuclear deal concluded in 2015. In recent years, when IAEA inspectors found traces of weapons-grade enriched uranium at some of the Islamic Republic’s facilities, it ‘first denied everything. There are also many nuclear facilities, but the Iranians do not clarify their real program. This is why the IAEA first sent the file to the United Nations Security Council, which imposed a number of sanctions on Iran. The regime has a secret agenda, it does not tell the IAEA about it, and it is willing to face sanctions rather than become transparent.
The Iranian diaspora calls for an end to all discussions with the Iranian regime and more external pressure on Tehran. Are some countries sensitive to it?
Westerners are extremely naive. They do not understand the nature of the Islamic Republic. In addition, the Islamic Republic has created numerous lobbies in Europe and North America. These lobbies tell Europeans that it is preferable to discuss with the Islamic Republic in order to control it. This is absurd, because if we observe the behavior of the Islamic Republic, we see that there is anything but normality. Westerners therefore do not understand the nature of the regime and think that they are dealing with a normal country. This is why dissidents and the diaspora are asking Europeans to break relations with the Islamic Republic because it is not sincere in what it says. However, I don’t know why, for example, Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, keep saying we need to talk to them. I can guarantee you that if all the former European, American and Canadian hostages in Iran were released today, they would immediately be replaced by others. This is a matter for the Islamic Republic. She makes money and Westerners are willing to pay for it. Why doesn’t the Islamic Republic have any Chinese or Russians in prison? For what ? Europeans must ask themselves the question.