In a proud tweet, Emmanuel Macron published his exchange with ChatGPT last Thursday. “OpenAI, your creators are opening an office in Paris today. Welcome! In a word, why did you choose France?” “Excellence”, replied, a bit sycophantically, the conversational agent. Not sure that the 200 international leaders surveyed by EY would have chosen the same term. The dissolution in June, and the political uncertainty that followed, shook their confidence. To assess the damage, the consulting firm EY exceptionally conducted a new survey this fall on the attractiveness of France, anticipating the one usually conducted in the spring.
The message is scathing. Far from praising French excellence, the managers surveyed mainly mention legislative and regulatory uncertainties. During the Choose France summit last May – an eternity ago – the President of the Republic praised the results of this 7th meeting of international investors in Versailles: 56 projects unveiled, 15 billion euros of investments and 10 000 jobs created. The “fruit of the reforms carried out in 2017”, with at the head of the gondola the reduction in corporate tax and production taxes. “We owe this result to the stability of economic policy,” added the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire.
Investment projects on the decline
Today, when the head of state rolls out the red carpet for the American champion of artificial intelligence, others fear getting tripped up. One boss in two surveyed judges that the attractiveness of France has deteriorated since last June, according to the EY barometer. The same proportion claims to have scaled back its investment projects in our country, considering delaying decisions to 2025, or even beyond. Marc Lhermitte, partner of the consulting firm, was not surprised by these figures. “We had experienced “rates of concern” [NDLR : part des entreprises indiquant réduire ou reporter des investissements compte tenu de l’incertitude ambiante] 70% during the Covid period, in May 2020, and almost 60% in Great Britain, after Brexit”. The wheel is turning. It is now London which could benefit from the tricolor popularity crisis, especially for the establishment of head offices, and although the budget of Keir Starmer’s government also provides for an increase in taxation “It is on the other side of the Channel that the knives are sharpest”, recognizes the expert. ‘EY Today.
In France, as long as the budgetary debates are not resolved, economic players will remain on alert. Without illusion. They expect to see the research tax credit – perceived as a strong totem of French attractiveness – adjusted marginally. In the same way, they have generally “abandoned the idea that production taxes could fall, notes Marc Lhermitte. They find it dramatic given the European, and a fortiori French, competitiveness gap, but have took their side.” On one condition, however: that the State, communities and public operators also assume their responsibilities, by reducing public spending.
In this gloomy panorama, the expert clings to one positive point: while Brexit had caused a drop of more than 15% in foreign investments on British soil in three years, no leader surveyed announced the cancellation of his commitments in France. For how long?