International pressure against Russia is increasing with the withdrawal from the grain agreement, says docent of military sciences Ilmari Käihkö in morning. Still, it is difficult for many poor countries to choose sides.
Withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Agreement is a message from Russia to the world, said Docent of Military Sciences and Visiting Researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute Ilmari Käihkö Ylen in the morning.
– Russia wants concessions. Russia wants SWIFT banking connections so that their economy would be in better shape.
Käihkö refers to the international SWIFT payment system, from which Russian banks have been excluded as a sanction.
The pressure towards Russia is growing in poor countries
Käihkö says that as a result of withdrawing from the grain agreement, the pressure on Russia is increasing, especially from the global south, where the biggest sufferers are.
– Apparently, the price of grain has risen by nine percent during yesterday, so yes, this is hitting the countries most in need, which are found in the Middle East and Africa.
– You still have to remember that in many poor countries you are in a bad position and it is safest there without choosing a side. And as long as there are no significant disadvantages in not turning against Russia, then of course you don’t want to do it this way.
Russia attacked grain warehouses and ports
Russia has carried out night airstrikes in the Odessa area. According to Ukraine, a large amount of grain and infrastructure were destroyed in the attacks.
According to Russia, these are revenge attacks for Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch Strait bridge leading to Crimea a few days ago.
In Käihkö’s opinion, this speaks harshly of the fact that Russia thinks the grain agreement is now over.
– On the other hand, Russia has had an ambivalent attitude towards this agreement from the beginning, says Käihkö, referring to Russia’s similar attack last year.
At that time, Russia attacked the port of Odessa just a day after the grain agreement was created.
– Yes, this shows that Russia is quite isolated internationally. International pressure bites Russia to some extent.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced yesterday, Wednesday, that all ships sailing to Black Sea ports will be defined as potential military cargo from today.
The Kerch Strait bridge has political significance
The Kerch Strait bridge connecting Russia and the Crimean peninsula was damaged on Monday in an attack by Ukraine.
Käihkö says that the bridge is very important for both parties.
– It is a concrete bond between the occupied Crimean peninsula and Russia. Putin has driven a car over this bridge several times, so yes, there is a lot of political capital here.
Käihkö sees Putin’s failure to protect the bridge, while once again the bridge has been attacked.
– Ukraine would certainly like to destroy this bridge, but apparently there are no means.
Since Ukraine has allegedly used underwater drones, it can tell Käihkö’s opinion that Ukraine must not use long-range missiles obtained from Western countries to attack this bridge. According to Käihkö, missiles would be the best military option.
The counter-offensive has progressed slowly and is costing many lives on both sides
In Ukraine, the counter-offensive against the territories occupied by Russia has progressed slowly.
– Last week, I think I said that Ukraine had freed less than two per thousand from the territory occupied by Russia. Now the number seems to be two and a half per thousand, so yes this is progressing, but terribly slowly.
At the same time, Käihkö reminds that the roles are now reversed from the beginning of the war, when Russia suffered massive losses.
– Now that Ukraine is attacking defended stations and minefields without air superiority, it will cost the Ukrainians a lot.
– Progressing a hundred meters can cost dozens of lives. Probably on both sides. This is raw and this is slow.