MOSCOW We will meet Oleg Orlovin in Moscow in November.
Orlov is a long-term human rights activist and had just been fined 150,000 rubles, or about 1,500 euros, for his anti-war writing. However, the prosecutor drew up a new motion and even demanded a prison sentence for him for defaming the armed forces.
Orlov estimates that the prosecutor’s presentation reveals the true intention of those in power.
– The constitution allows criticism, allows freedom of speech, but now precisely because of expressing criticism, my punishment should be increased to up to three years of deprivation of liberty, says Orlov.
In Russia, the price for anti-war demonstrations is high.
In November, an artist from St. Petersburg Sasha Skotshilenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for pasting anti-war messages in place of shop price tags.
In December, a Moscow court handed down verdicts for a poetry recital against the campaign: the poet Artyom Kamardin got seven years and a poet Yegor Shtovba five and a half years.
Oleg Orlov already compares the atmosphere to the times of the late Soviet Union.
– Freedom of speech has practically been destroyed. The sentences are very cruel. In some sense, even crueler than [Leonid] Brezhnev time, says Orlov.
– We feel like dissidents from the Soviet era.
Brezhnev led the Soviet Union from the 60s to the beginning of the 80s. Orlov says that at that time he was not yet an active member of the community of dissidents and human rights defenders.
Like other Soviet intellectuals, he read underground publications known as samizdat and himself printed leaflets against the war in Afghanistan and the martial law declared in Poland.
In 1988, Orlov co-founded the human rights organization Memorial. Its mission was to preserve the memory of the victims of the political persecutions of the Soviet Union and, on the other hand, to oppose human rights violations in today’s Russia.
The Russian Supreme Court ordered the traditional organization to be dissolved in December 2021. Memorial received the Nobel Peace Prize the following year.
The number of political prisoners is increasing
In the early 1980s, a dissident Kronid Lyubarski published a list of Soviet political prisoners. At that time, there were about 800 people on the list.
Currently, there are more than 600 political prisoners on the list maintained by Memorial. Memorial’s activists have continued their work, even though the organization has been stripped of its official status.
Orlov emphasizes that they have included only the cases that Memorial itself has been able to verify from the documents. In reality, for political reasons, many more people are sitting in prisons.
President Vladimir Putin In Russia, the number of prisoners of conscience is therefore the same as in the late Soviet Union.
On the other hand, at that time the sentences were not so long. Usually, the security service KGB conducted preventive interviews with those suspected of dissidents.
– Now let’s sit down straight away, says Orlov.
In the Soviet Union, the time of Stalinism was still fresh in the memory, and therefore the deterrence did not necessarily have to be so sharp.
In today’s Russia, citizens are already getting used to some kind of freedom of speech. Critical media such as the Novaya Gazeta newspaper and the Eho Moskvy radio station were allowed to operate until the very last few years.
Now a prison sentence can come from the first critical social media post. Denigrating the armed forces can result in a prison sentence of up to ten years.
In Orlov’s opinion, harsh sentences are a way to quickly scare society into silence.
“My voice is heard better in Russia”
When Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, the war was widely opposed in Russia as well.
Many writers, actors and scientists wrote petitions to end the war. Others took to various demonstrations, and protests were seen in several cities, not just Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The rulers succeeded in suppressing the business movement with hard measures. Numerous opposition politicians, journalists and human rights activists have had to leave the country.
Oleg Orlov says that human rights activists need to consider whether they can do their work more efficiently from abroad in the current conditions. He himself considered that he is still able to work best in Russia.
– Besides that, I have always felt that my voice is heard better in Russia, Orlov says.
– That’s why I consider my lawsuit as part of our joint work at Memorial. During the trial, we have been able to say a lot. Both in court and right after, we have been able to present our point of view.
In this way, the trials have served as a kind of performance stage for the activists.
The stability maintained by the Kremlin is fragile
Russia’s rulers are trying to maintain an image of stability before the presidential elections in March.
It’s not about any genuine election competition, the Kremlin will take care of that. The purpose of the elections is to show that President Vladimir Putin has overwhelming popular support behind him.
That’s why the Russian authorities are unlikely to announce a new wave of campaign proposals before the elections. They are also trying to keep the economy stable.
– It will weaken regardless. Anyone visiting the store can compare the situation with what it was a year or two ago. It’s quite obvious, says Orlov.
When the economic situation deteriorates, the frustration of the economically disadvantaged population increases. It can find violent outlets.
Orlov refers to the recent unrest in the North Caucasian state of Dagestan, when mobs angered by the events in Gaza stormed Makhachkala Airport in search of Jews.
– In many regions of Russia, not only in Dagestan, there are large concentrations of very poor people, above all young people. They have no decent jobs, no education, and no means of social ascent, says Orlov.
Orlov estimates that despite all the propaganda, the war causes confusion and dissatisfaction among the population. As the war continues longer and longer, People begin to wonder where the promised victory lies.
This all adds up to instability. But Orlov isn’t going to predict when or how it will unfold.
In December, a Moscow court overturned the fine imposed on Orlov for defaming the armed forces and returned the case to the prosecutor’s preparation.