Fear of ethnic cleansing and lack of external military support. These are the starting points for Nagorno-Karabakh’s self-proclaimed government in Thursday’s talks with Azerbaijan, according to analyst Jakob Hedenskog.
– The Karabakh Armenians are negotiating from a position of weakness – they simply have no choice, he says.
On Tuesday, Azerbaijan launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, following claims that Armenian forces were in the region, which Armenia denied.
Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan’s borders and is effectively a breakaway region under the wing of Armenia, with a predominantly Armenian population.
There is currently a ceasefire in the area, something that the Russian so-called peacekeeping troops claim to have negotiated. These troops will also work to maintain the ceasefire, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, the state-run Russian news agency Tass reports.
Avoids ethnic cleansing
Talks between Azerbaijan and the region’s self-appointed government are now expected during Thursday. The talks will be about a total disarmament of Nagorno-Karabakh’s armed forces, says Jakob Hedenskog, analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Foreign Policy Institute.
But the parties’ negotiating positions look very different, he emphasizes.
Among other things, the Karabakh Armenians may have to agree to a population transfer from the region.
– It seems that Azerbaijan intended here to be able to go very far and perhaps carry out some form of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. This could be a way to enforce the same thing in a less violent way, which would arouse less international protests.
Meet in Spain
A peace agreement in the real sense is not relevant at the moment, he believes.
– Now it is likely to be a more permanent cease-fire agreement with elements of the disarmament of Nagorno-Karabakh’s armed forces and the withdrawal of heavy equipment and weapons from Nagorno-Karabakh territory.
There is much to suggest that the events of the last few days could be a way for Azerbaijan to put pressure on Armenia ahead of an upcoming bilateral meeting in connection with the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Granada, Spain at the beginning of October, according to Hedenskog.
– This means that Armenia comes with a weaker position and Azerbaijan with a stronger one before the EPC meeting, where we can expect that something could come out to push the process closer towards a more permanent peace agreement.
TT: Do you think the ceasefire will last?
– It is hard to say. But I think that the Armenian side has no intention of violating it, on the other hand, Azerbaijan can violate it themselves. They have done that several times in recent months, and have also attacked Armenia’s recognized territory.