On Thursday, the head of the US intelligence service CIA, Bill Burns, warned that Ukraine risks losing the war before the end of the year unless US support increases.
The warning comes just days before US politicians are to decide on the massive $60 billion aid package that has been promised but blocked in Congress.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously expressed similar tones as the CIA chief.
– You have to take statements like this with a grain of salt. There are people who actively try to influence the discussion in Congress. They want the support package to go through, says Ilmari Käihkö, senior lecturer in military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy, to TV4 Nyheterna.
However, the situation on the front has gotten worse, although it is difficult to know exactly how bad the situation is. According to Ilmari Käihkö, Russia has become stronger and Ukraine weaker.
Has invested in the industry
Russia’s increased advantage is due, among other things, to increased arms production and arms deliveries from, among other things, North Korea. They have also succeeded in mobilizing more manpower, something Ukraine has not succeeded in doing.
– Russia’s resources, their fighting forces, are limited. But at the same time, Russia can do more with less when Ukraine becomes weaker, says Ilmari Käihkö.
Along with Russia’s success, support for Ukraine has decreased. The $60 billion aid package has been stuck in the US Congress for months, and the EU’s promise of one million artillery shells has so far only resulted in about 300,000.
– Europe has not shown the political will to offer more material to Ukraine. It is a concrete failure.
If the situation is as critical for Ukraine as it sounds, the American aid package could be decisive.
– Then Ukraine may very well lose the war if the support package does not go through, says Ilmari Käihkö
Could be the last support from the US
However, Ilmari Käihkö thinks that it is necessary to specify what “losing the war” means. The outcome can be anything from Ukraine getting rid of Russia to Russia subjugating parts or all of Ukraine.
The EU will probably have to multiply its support to Ukraine if the US support package does not go through, and even if the support package passes Congress, there are no guarantees that the US will provide additional support in the future, says Ilmari Käihkö.
– If Trump wins the election this fall, one can imagine that this could be the last thing Ukraine ever gets from the United States.
According to several observers, Russia is planning a summer offensive.
– I would not overestimate Russia’s ability. Offensives have proven hugely expensive in this war, and Russia hasn’t made much progress this year.