The agreement recently brokered by China between Palestinian organizations can be a very significant turning point, a Finnish expert estimates. Middle East Institute Foundation Researcher Antti Tarvainen however, it is entirely possible that the fragile agreement will fall apart before the plans can be implemented.
Hamas, which controls Gaza, Fatah, which exercises limited power in the West Bank, and 12 other Palestinian organizations signed an agreement in Beijing on July 23, in which they committed to work for “national unity”.
The agreement between Hamas and Fatah in particular is a major milestone, as the organizations are traditionally enemies. The post-2006 election conflict between the organizations led to the current situation where the Palestinian territories are divided into areas administered by Hamas and Fatah.
– At the very least, this is a really big and significant diplomatic gesture. Whether this is something more, whether this is something concrete, depends on how well this paper turns into practice, Tarvainen tells STT.
An alternative future
Tarvainen sees Beijing’s statement as a big protest against the future that Israel and the United States have pushed for Gaza. The cooperation of Palestinian organizations is linked to the question of what will happen to Gaza after the current war ends.
There have been two competing visions within the Israeli government: the extremist elements of the government support the total cleansing of Gaza, a more permanent takeover and settlements, while the competing vision is the establishment of a new administration in Gaza that is obedient to Israel and separate from the Palestinian Authority.
In the United States and in the West more broadly, it has been outlined that the Palestinian Authority led by Fatah would be expanded to Gaza.
– Because they (the Palestinian Authority) are already in the dependency network that connects to Western development aid and Israel, Tarvainen points out.
– These futures are widely opposed among Palestinians.
The organizations were far from each other
Over the past 18 years, Fatah and Hamas have tried to broker an agreement several times. Cooperation has always failed in the end due to both internal and external factors.
In the current crisis situation, the Palestinian organizations seem to have been able to put their differences aside, at least for a while.
– Now in this state of emergency, where it is uncertain whether such a thing as Palestinian Gaza will even exist in the future, these parties, with China’s midwives, seem to have been able to come together for a while, says Tarvainen.
The organizations are very different from their ideological starting points.
– Hamas is an Islamist, conservative, authoritarian movement that is divided into a political and armed wing, has not given up armed resistance, and also uses terrorism as a method. Fatah, on the other hand, is a nationalist partner of Western countries, has pursued a neoliberal economic policy.
Fatah is currently very weak and unpopular. Hamas, which carried out a brutal attack on Israel last October, has raised its profile with the Gaza war and found new audiences. Although Israel has set as its goal the destruction of Hamas, it is practically not possible.
Although Hamas does not officially accept the existence of the state of Israel, Tarvainen believes that the aim of the agreement brokered by China is to support the two-state model.
Haniyya’s death unites
Uncertainty in the situation is created by the leader of the political organization of Hamas Ismail Haniyyan killing on Wednesday in Tehran. Israel has been widely suspected of being behind the killing.
According to Tarvainen, Haniyya was perhaps the most significant representative of Hamas both in the cease-fire negotiations with Israel and also in building Palestinian unity, where progress had just been achieved.
– New uncertainties and a short-term slowdown in this process can be expected until his successor is chosen, says Tarvainen.
On the other hand, the killing of Haniyya has brought the Palestinians together more and more strongly both in the West Bank and in Gaza, so the conditions for building unity are still favorable.
Will the political field open up?
The agreement concluded now includes mention of, among other things, free elections. There have been no elections in the Palestinian Territories for 18 years.
If implemented, the agreement could, according to Tarvainen, open up the political field both in the West Bank and in Gaza, bypassing the two big authoritarian parties. Among the 14 groups included in the agreement are, for example, left-wing Palestinian groups.
– Yes, it will open up a political field for the Palestinians, if this really comes true. But I’m a little skeptical about that, Tarvainen states.
The practical implementation of the agreement involves many big unresolved questions, such as whether Hamas would dare to give its weapons to others.
The risk of becoming a pawn
The Beijing agreement is the latest example of China becoming active as a gambler in the Middle East, increasing its influence in the region and trying to take over the role that traditionally belonged to the United States. China’s activation is both an opportunity and a threat for the Palestinians, Tarvainen sees.
On the other hand, it is very significant that new avenues are opening up for the Palestinians to influence their future.
– The Palestinians have been geopolitically quite alone and dependent only on the West, seeking Western support in the West Bank. Now such a new horizon opens up for them.
As a threat to China’s role, Tarvainen sees the fact that the Palestinians are drifting into a pawn in the great power game of the Cold War era.
– However, they don’t really have much power in these games.
Unity a threat to Israel
The reaction of Israel and the West to the new agreement is also significant. Israel has been using divide and rule tactics on the Palestinians for a long time, so it does not look favorably on the convergence of the organizations.
– The unity of the Palestinians is a catastrophic thing for Israel, Tarvainen reminds.
At the moment, Israel also does not accept any efforts towards a two-state model. The other week, the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, passed a resolution that unequivocally rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state and thus buries the two-state solution.
Länsimaiden Tarvainen estimates that he is trying to bring Fatah back to its roots, so that it does not cooperate with Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization. Many important Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have also aligned themselves with the West and focused on supporting the Palestinian Authority.