Examination of the finance bill for the 2025 budget has begun in the National Assembly. While the deputies have already rejected several key government measures, the latter is already discussing recourse to 49.3.
The government is paving the way for 49.3 only one day after the start of the examination of the bill concerning the 2025 budget. The use of this constitutional tool will be “discussed” during the Council of Ministers scheduled for this Wednesday, October 23, affirmed the door government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, at the microphone of France 2. “It’s the rule, it’s a constitutional possibility available to the government. But it’s not the will of the Prime Minister,” added the Macronist.
A “rule”? Rather an anticipation of certain necessary provisions before resorting to 49.3. The Prime Minister is not required to raise the subject with his government at the start of a review of legislation. On the other hand, it is effectively obliged to consult the executive in the Council of Ministers before initiating a procedure of 49.3 if it plans to adopt in text without the approval of Parliament. By evoking article 49.3 of the Constitution now in the Council of Ministers, Michel Barnier authorizes himself to be able to use this tool at any time during the debates on the finance bill for 2025, and without emergency holding of a new government meeting. “We’ll have this discussion. [autour du 49.3]”, it’s normal that we have it, but that does not prejudge the Prime Minister’s decision”, however, wanted to reassure Maud Bregeon.
A speech echoed by Michel Barnier’s entourage. “It’s a simple formality which allows him to avoid bringing together the Council of Ministers in an emergency,” assured a relative of the tenant of Matignon to Politico before insisting on the Prime Minister’s wish for “the debates to take place”. The examination of the finance bill is an opportunity for the head of government to prove that he gives credit to the National Assembly and that he “respects the vote of parliamentarians, even if it does not go in [son] sense”, underlined Maud Bregeon on France 2.
Text changed, but changes ignored?
However, “all options are on the table” including that of a forced passage for the vote on the 2025 budget, if the financial “balance” envisaged by the Prime Minister in the initial bill is no longer at the meeting following the examination of the text by the deputies. As a reminder, Michel Barnier has set the objective of getting his hands on 60 billion euros to pay off the public debt: 20 billion coming from revenues enabled by tax increases and 40 billion from a reduction in spending.
The government has already suffered several annoyances after a single day of debate: the temporary surcharge targeting the richest households which was to be temporary according to the government project was made permanent by the deputies. Who also voted in favor of limiting the possibilities for very wealthy taxpayers to use tax advantages or tax credits. Setbacks that would have motivated the discussion on 49.3 in the Council of Ministers?
Some elected officials fear that the government has already made the decision to impose its text and its budget. “I think that Mr. Barnier has already planned to trigger 49.3, and that he is making fun of the world” commented Jean-Philippe Tanguy, deputy of the National Rally, to theAFP pointing out an executive who “does not negotiate anything”. If the Prime Minister decides to use 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget, he will be able to impose the version of the bill that suits him, with or without the amendments adopted during the debates. The aforementioned changes adopted against the advice of the government could thus disappear with the snap of a finger.
Warnings against 49.3
“We do not want Parliament to be brutalized” or ignored, however, warns the vice-president of the RN, Sébastien Chenu on BFMTV. “49.3 is not justified” declares more frankly the boss of the Socialist Party (PS) Olivier Faure, highlighting “convergences which cross political divisions” in the face of a “minority government” on Barnier needs to pay attention, because MPs’ response to the use of 49.3 is often a motion of censure. However, with around 220 deputies behind him, the government could be overthrown under the weight of elected officials from the left and the extreme right.