The world will very likely fail one of the most important climate goals, the UN agency WMO states.
Within five years, 1.5 degrees of global warming will be a reality – which could lead to devastating droughts and severe floods.
– The world has failed year after year, says TV4 Nyhetern’s science commentator Susanna Baltscheffsky.
In 2015, the risk of the global temperature increase temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees was close to zero. In 2023, the risk is 66 percent, according to a new forecast from the UN meteorological organization WMO.
The UN body states that the probability that 1.5 degrees of warming will be exceeded in the next five years is imminent.
– It is due to the enormous emissions of greenhouse gases that the world’s countries, not least industrialized countries, have caused and which are now in the form of huge amounts of carbon dioxide that heats up, says Susanna Baltscheffsky, TV4 Nyheternas science commentator.
Warmest five-year period so far
She also says that the weather phenomenon El Niño plays a big role.
– It is about how the ocean currents outside South America and the Pacific Ocean move. It is a period where the ocean currents lead to warmer weather, explains Susanna Baltscheffsky.
The world has already warmed 1.15 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. The years 2023-2027 are likely to be the warmest five-year period so far.
Passing 1.5 degrees will mean, among other things, more extreme weather.
– We have already seen major problems with drought in Southern Europe and floods in Pakistan, without having been up to 1.5 degrees of warming, says Baltscheffsky.
“Failure year after year”
– Extreme weather will become increasingly common. It could be anything from heat and drought to floods when the glaciers melt. It is usually said that it becomes a doped weather system when it gets so much warmer.
Reducing emissions is something that should have been done a long time ago, notes Susanna Baltscheffsky.
– What is needed, but which may not have an effect in the coming years, is to quickly ensure that emissions are reduced. There, the world has failed year after year, despite all the UN conferences on reducing emissions.