Today, Ulf Kristersson and Recep Tayyip Erdogan meet before the NATO summit in Vilnius tomorrow.
TV4’s foreign reporter Jonas Björck answers three questions about how the situation for Swedish NATO membership looks like after the latest play-off and before today’s meeting.
How big are the chances that Sweden will get a yes during the NATO summit?
– At the time of writing, it looks quite dark. Turkish President Erdogan persists in his stance that Sweden is not living up to its promises in the preliminary agreement signed at the last NATO summit in the Spanish capital, Madrid, a year ago. It primarily concerns the fact that the Turkish leadership believes that Sweden is not seriously dealing with the Kurdish group PKK. The Turks also want the Swedish authorities to extradite a number of people to Turkey. People Turkey considers terrorists.
– However, it is not entirely impossible that Erdogan does a U-turn during the ongoing meeting and says yes to Swedish NATO membership. A yes from Erdogan would in that case mean that Hungary also says yes. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has promised that. But then the parliaments in Turkey and Hungary must also say yes to Sweden – and it may take some time this autumn.
How important is it for Sweden that all NATO countries are now united?
– As you know, it is Turkey and Hungary that have so far said no to Sweden. What the Swedish government is hoping for is that the heads of state and government of the other countries now come together and during the meeting put pressure primarily on the Turkish president Erdogan. US President Joe Biden has said on several occasions recently that he believes that Sweden should become a member. And of course the US’s voice carries a lot of weight in this context.
Are the continued tough tones from Erdogan just a negotiation game?
– It is always a negotiation game from all parties at this type of international summit. Erdogan is playing his role for both his own population and the outside world. For the Turks, he wants to show that Turkey is respected by other countries and that a strong leader like Erdogan cannot be ignored.
– And for other Muslim countries, he wants to appear as a defender of Islam, not least in light of the Koran burnings that have been carried out in Sweden recently. Also in the pot, as is well known, is that Turkey wants to buy fighter jets from the United States. But as I said, the Turkish president may abandon his stubborn attitude and say yes to Sweden during the current summit.