The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost two years and bloody battles rage daily. To anyone following the map of Ukraine, which shows which land is currently controlled by which side, it is clear that not much is happening.
– There are fierce battles, but nothing more happens than people die. It is a continuing misery, says Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
The town of Avdijivka has become a symbol of the standoff in Ukraine and the subject of a Russian buildup in the fall.
Ukraine has managed to resist the offensive, despite daily attacks and huge losses. The question the world is asking is how long the country can last.
– The Russians are betting a lot and it’s a rather bleak situation for Ukraine. You don’t get enough international support, artillery ammunition and other things are missing, but despite that, Russia doesn’t succeed in taking Avdijivka, for example, says Paasikivi.
Willingness to defend great
Ukraine manages to resist because of a great will to defend, ability and with the help of smaller drones, explains the lieutenant colonel.
– As soon as someone moves, they are detected and then you can also fight them and drop bombs. It is simply dangerous, says Paasikivi and continues:
– The problem is to get through a front line and switch from this positional war to getting it moving. If you have large mines and other fortifications defending, then you cannot get through. Now comes the threat of drones.
Joakim Paasikvi believes that telewarfare capabilities and fighter aircraft are required to break the pattern. He predicts that the deadlock at the front will continue for a long time.
The development of the war
Recently, Ukraine has switched to striking other targets, far away from the front.
– It is about important strategic targets in Crimea, against the Black Sea fleet, but also against oil refineries. The war is moving towards economic and industrial targets, says Paasikvi.
The lieutenant colonel predicts a continued political debate in the West about continued support – and a spring of what we have seen in the past year.
– For Ukraine, it is a lack of artillery ammunition, continued misery for all soldiers involved in fighting, continued Russian robot attacks. That is, the continuation of what is now during the next six months.