Thames Valley trustees ask: Where are our would-be students going?

The budget deficit facing the London region’s largest school board has increased again, driven in part by another cut to the number of students at its schools – which has trustees searching for answers.

The budget deficit facing the London region’s largest school board has increased again, driven in part by another cut to the number of students at its schools – which has trustees searching for answers.

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The Thames Valley District school board spending shortfall has jumped to $16.8 million, up from $16.5 million in October, according to a just-released staff report. That’s because the headcount across its 159 schools is 821 students below projections.

Why, one trustee asked, is the student population not meeting expectations?

“Do we have any further data on students leaving our board and where they’re going?” trustee Marianne Larsen asked at a debate this week during which the board’s finances were updated.

“It would be helpful to be clear on what the enrollment pressures are – that kind of information can help us to plan better and help us to set up a plan for retaining students.”

Tea board expected 84,112 students this year, but actual enrollment is 83,300. Including this adjustment and a previous one, that represents a loss of $8.7 million in provincial funding, staff say.

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The staff report attributes the latest shortfall to fewer high school students due in part to a sagging local housing market.

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In elementary schools, the reduced number of students was blamed in the staff report on lower birth rates. A traditional birth-to-student ratio of 71.54 per cent was off by 1.77 per cent, staff noted, which “resulted in fewer junior kindergarten students than expected.”

One board official has previously said Thames Valley was losing students due to “a retention issue” between Grade 8 and Grade 9. Trustee Beth Mai pushed for more details about students exiting the Thames Valley system.

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And trustee Bruce Smith asked for data – which he was told was unavailable – regarding students in St. Thomas elementary schools who have transferred to the London District Catholic school board.

Superintendent Cathy Lynd said she would respond to trustees’ questions at a future meeting.

In an email to Thames Valley staff last month, a copy of which was obtained by The Free Press, interim education director Bill Tucker acknowledged a “very challenging budget situation” facing the board.

The London-based board had previously slashed its 2024-25 budget shortfall to $7.6 million from $18 million with cuts that included 58 elementary and 24 high school teaching jobs17 early childhood jobs educator and four positions in speech and psychological services.

But the deficit shot back up when the student-population projection shortfall was first identified. And last month the board eliminated the equivalent of 33 high school teaching jobs. Its annual budget is roughly $1.2 billion.

The board is also being audited by the Ministry of Education after The Free Press uncovered details of a $38,000, three-day retreat for 18 board administrators at the Toronto Blue Jays stadium hotel in August.

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