Pro-Russian demonstrations, rumored coup plans and leaked documents from Russia’s security services. In recent months, Russia has been repeatedly accused of trying to destabilize Moldova. Recently, several members of a Moscow-linked network were arrested who, according to Moldovan police, organized anti-government protests in the capital Chisinau.
Torgny Hinnemo, journalist and former analyst at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with extensive knowledge of the former Soviet Union, says that the country’s pro-Russian former leaders have made common cause since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
— There is cooperation under the surface between all the old political ghosts in the country’s history. Together with Russian agents, they try to inflame the mood to force out the pro-Western government.
Fatal consequences
Moldova’s strategic value is disputed. The country is small and poor, but the geographical location is precarious to say the least. If Moscow were to succeed in getting a pro-Russian government in place in Chisinau, it could have fatal consequences for Ukraine, according to Torgny Hinnemo, who was Svenska Dagbladet’s correspondent in Moscow when the Soviet Union fell.
— It would be very serious. In (the breakaway republic of) Transnistria there is no real airport, for example. Should the Russian forces suddenly gain access to the airport in Chisinau, they can reinforce militarily and deploy it against Ukraine.
“It’s a small country, but a good way to access, above all, the Odessa region,” he says.
Riot police during an anti-government protest in Chisinau, Moldova on February 28.
There are many similarities between the former Soviet republics of Moldova and its eastern neighbor Ukraine, Hinnemo points out. Like Ukraine, the years following the fall of communism were politically tumultuous in Moldova.
— There were many regimes that succeeded each other and a lot of corruption. In the end, they landed in something very similar to Ukraine’s political system.
Want to join the EU
In 2020, incumbent President Maia Sandu of the pro-EU Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) won over Igor Dodon of the strongly pro-Russian Socialist Party. Three years later, Moldovan domestic politics continues to be characterized by deep contradictions between pro-Russia and EU-oriented parties. After the country was given candidate status for the EU last year, Russian interests have increasingly become visible.
Opinion in Moldova is divided, just like in many former Soviet republics. There are small groups that are very pro-Russian.
— Some have been more used to the idea of belonging in the Slavic area. It is a country that does best not to be forced to choose – but it is difficult in this tangled situation, says Hinnemo.
20,000 tons of weapons
The situation is further complicated by the fact that large parts of Moldova’s border with Ukraine are formed by the breakaway republic of Transnistria, which since its declaration of independence in 1990 has been supported financially and militarily by Russia. Around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed at Europe’s largest ammunition depot in Cobasna in northern Transnistria, where over 20,000 tons of Soviet-era weapons are believed to be stored.
— The Russians want to keep it. It’s a way to maintain their empire, says Torgny Hinnemo.
President Maia Sandu looks on as newly appointed Prime Minister Dorin Recean bows to the Moldovan flag on February 16. Recean was given the post to deal with the increased security threat.
Just like in many countries, frustration is growing in Moldova in line with increased inflation and rampant living costs. The country has the lowest GDP per capita in all of Europe. Decisive now is to curb popular discontent, above all among the more pro-Russian population, says Hinnemo.
— It is very important to avoid the risk of a coup d’état. If it degenerates into violence, it can become really dangerous. Now it depends on the EU standing up financially and keeping the country afloat.