The US Department of Defense said it considered it likely that the plane carrying Prigozhin was not shot down by a missile. According to researcher Ilmari Käihkö, a more logical explanation would be a bomb exploding inside the plane.
Wagner Director Yevgeny Prigozhin and the cause of the plane crash that killed nine other people remains sketchy.
– Everything related to the fall of the plane is speculation due to the lack of evidence, states the docent of military sciences and visiting researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute Ilmari Käihkö.
It is known that the private plane owned by Prigožin broke up in the air and caught fire when it hit the ground on Wednesday evening.
The US Department of Defense said yesterday Thursday that it considers it likely that the plane carrying Prigozhin was not shot down by a missile. The spokesperson of the Pentagon told about it Patrick Ryder did not elaborate on what the assessment is based on.
Eyewitnesses’ observations speak in favor of the missile claim.
According to information from Russia, locals would have heard two explosions before the plane fell, says Käihkö.
Russian independent news site Medusa according to the explosions would point to a missile, as firing two anti-aircraft missiles at a target is common in Russia.
In addition, in one taken from the accident scene in the video a cloud of smoke resembling the trajectory of a missile can be seen.
According to Käihkö, the only certain thing is that the private plane Prigožin allegedly was in exploded.
– On the other hand, we don’t have footage of the missile. We also don’t know where the US got the information.
The bomb could have been inside the plane
Käihkö does not take a position on whether the Pentagon’s information is true, but states that a bomb detonated inside the plane would be a more logical option for bringing down the plane.
– A bomb detonated inside the plane is a technically easier and safer way to bring down the plane. In addition, it leaves doubts about the perpetrator in a way that an anti-aircraft missile fired from Russian territory would not. Of course, there is no certainty about that, says Käihkö.
Among other things, the flight altitude of the private plane speaks in favor of the bomb claim.
Flightradar website according to Prigožin’s plane rose to more than 8,000 meters. Short-range anti-aircraft missiles don’t go that high, so a medium-range missile like the Buk would have been needed to shoot down the plane.
The Buk missile’s warhead, weighing up to 70 kilograms, can carry thousands of ammunition.
The destruction of such a missile would break the plane into small pieces in the air. However, pictures taken from the scene show that the plane falls from the sky in a large piece.
An official investigation has been started in Russia into the plane crash that led to the deaths of the Wagner aircraft.
The authorities by no line of investigation is excluded and claims about an “external factor” causing the accident are also being investigated.
Käihkö says that he considers the investigation carried out by the Russian authorities to be unreliable.
– You probably can’t rely on that, because there is a high probability that the Russian elite is behind the downing of the plane, says Käihkö.
There is no official confirmation of Prigozhin’s death
Käihkö says that he paid attention to the communication of the Russian authorities, which quickly concluded that it was an accident.
– Official communication started talking about the accident very quickly. It drew attention to talking like this before the actual investigation.
In the communications of the Russian authorities, only the names of the passengers on the plane have been stated and that all passengers died. However, those who died in the accident have not been officially identified.
On Thursday, it was reported in the Russian-language media and on the channels of the Telegram messaging service that the so-called second man of Prigozhin and Wagner Dmitri Utkin the bodies would have been identified. The information could not be confirmed by independent sources.
The British Ministry of Defense points out in the daily in its intelligence reviewthat it has not yet been fully proven that Prigožinin was on the plane.
On Thursday evening, the President of Russia Vladimir Putin however, he seemed to have made sure of it when he issued a public statement expressing his condolences to Prigožin’s family.
– The matter is still being speculated. After Putin’s statement, however, it seems that this really happened. It would be special if he showed up somewhere alive after that.
Käihkö considers Putin’s statement as confirmation that Prigozhin was really on the plane.