Tank deliveries to Ukraine: what now for combat aircraft?

Will French fighter planes one day take part in the war in Ukraine? “I hear many experts speak highly of French planes and their pilots. Naturally, I will be very happy if Ukrainian pilots can be trained in the handling of French planes,” he said. Figaro Oleksiy Reznikovthe Ukrainian Defense Minister, while acknowledging that he had not yet discussed it with his counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu.

One piece of information will not have escaped him: France intends to switch to “all Rafale” for the end of the decade, as Emmanuel Macron announced during his wishes to the Armies on January 20. This means the gradual withdrawal, in favor of the Rafale alone, of the 97 Mirage 2000s that the Air Force still has. It would be surprising if Oleksiy Reznikov did not express his interest in this model…

But more than the Mirage 2000, it is the American F-16, the most used fighter plane in the world (more than 4,600 built, of which almost half are still flying), that the Ukrainians hope to obtain. His supporters have so far refused to provide him with such a weapon. It could be the next step taken by the West in their deliveries to Ukraine, after that of heavy tanks – 31 M1 Abrams from Washington, 14 British Challenger 2s and several dozen German Leopard 2s by a coalition of European countries. .

“If the decision to provide [aux Ukrainiens] combat aircraft is being considered, Poland will vote ‘yes’, but of course this can only be a decision taken by the whole of NATO”, already declared on January 26 Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

The Ukrainian dream of American F-16s

In full renewal of its air fleet of fighter bombers, the Netherlands does not rule out giving F-16s. Ahead of Ramstein’s Jan. 18 meeting on arms deliveries, their foreign minister, Wopke Hoekstra, said a Ukrainian request would be “considered,” if made, with “an open mind.” They will nevertheless need the re-export authorization from Washington, as provided for in the arms contracts. Asked about itthe American ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Michael Carpenter, said he expected “there will be broad support in the United States for our allies to continue to increase their contributions.

In any case, the Ukrainians have been asking them for F16s for months. Their air force spokesman, Yuri Ignat, had indicated last summer to Air & Space Forces Magazine that “two squadrons” of 12 F-16s could “turn the tide of the war”. He also specified that “at least 30 pilots with sufficient English skills [étaient] ready to travel to the United States for fighter pilot training with the corresponding engineers and maintenance teams”.

Are they already there? The same Yuri Ignat said on January 24 to ArmyInformthe information agency of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, that “military pilots [Ukrainiens] went to the United States” and that “funds were allocated to [leur] training”. He added that “the type of aircraft likely to be supplied to Ukraine and the training conditions have already been determined”, but without specifying whether it was indeed F-16.

These planes are currently being phased out of service in the United States, but also in some European countries, to be replaced by the F-35 fighter-bomber. Besides the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark are planning this generational leap from the F-16 to the F-35. Norway, for its part, has already withdrawn its own from service in January 2022. No request from kyiv has yet been satisfied for F-16s. But the Ukrainians could increase their diplomatic and media efforts to achieve this, as they did to obtain Leopard tanks.

Other expected combat aircraft

Western-made fighter jets would not be too much for kyiv. “F-16s would help the Ukrainians continue to close the skies to the Russians, who have a massive air force, and prevent them from using it to support battlefield operations,” he said. claim retired Australian General Mick Ryan. Planes could also play a role in possible offensives. “Breaking through well-prepared defensive lines (and exploiting success) is difficult without significant combined arms advantages,” said Rob Lee, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, on Twitter.

To act on the front, kyiv had requested, at the start of the war, an American aircraft specialized in close combat, the A-10 “Warthog”, capable of carrying a large number of missiles, while firing a 30mm cannon. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov had asked for around 100 last March, revealed the washington post. But he was refused by his counterpart in the United States, Lloyd Austin. This would have underlined the vulnerability to Russian air defenses of a device whose production ceased in 1984.

For a time, Poland had considered transferring its last Soviet Mig-29s to kyiv, via an American base. But Washington had again refused, for fear, at the time, that Moscow might see in it too great a direct involvement of NATO in the conflict. Since then, the supporters of Ukraine, in particular those, Europeans, who had Soviet planes, have favored the sending of spare parts. As early as April, according to a senior Pentagon official, these parts would have allowed “more than 20 fighter planes” of the Ukrainian Air Force previously grounded to fly again.

British think tank RUSI published in November a study explaining that the combat aircraft that would best meet the needs of the Ukrainians is the JAS 39 Gripen. According to this, this Swedish equivalent of the Rafale has simple maintenance and a relatively low operating cost. It can land on small airfields, even roads, and was primarily designed to confront the Russian army. “To be honest, there are no plans to send Gripen planes,” Swedish Defense Minister Paul Jonson said. The march for the delivery of fighter planes to Ukraine promises to be higher than that of the Leopards.