Taiwan: Macron’s strategic mistake

The remarks made by Emmanuel Macron on the plane that brought him back from his state trip to China caused the consternation of many American and European experts, and risk leaving traces in the minds of our partners. “The great risk” for Europe would be “to find itself drawn into crises that are not ours, which would prevent us from building our strategic autonomy”, estimated the French president in interviews with journalists from the echoesof France Inter and the site Politico. And to add: “the question put to us Europeans is the following […] Do we have an interest in speeding up the subject of Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans should follow suit on this subject and adapt to the American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.

While the French president had avoided publicly addressing the highly sensitive issue of Taiwan during his trip to China, these statements come at the worst time, while Beijing is carrying out large-scale military maneuvers around the island (in retaliation for the meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy in California last week). Taiwan pursues an autonomous policy, but Beijing, which considers it one of its provinces, has sworn to bring it into its fold, if necessary by force.

With such declarations, Paris serves Chinese interests

The declarations of the Head of State are problematic in more ways than one. First, Emmanuel Macron suggests that the United States would be responsible for the tensions between Taiwan and Beijing, while the communist regime continues to increase its military threat on the island. In the name of Europe’s “strategic autonomy” and a desire for independence from the United States, he seems to think that the fate of the 23 million Taiwanese – one of the living in the region in the face of the Chinese authoritarian regime – does not concern the Old Continent.

Whether the Head of State likes it or not, France and the European Union are part of this West that Xi Jinping and his “friend” Vladimir Putin – two autocrats – seek to marginalize. Just as it is impossible to remain neutral between Ukraine and its Russian aggressor, it will be necessary to choose sides in the face of rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The words of the French head of state are all the more surprising given that the United States currently plays a key role in Europe to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression – it is by far the leading arms supplier.

By holding this type of speech, is Emmanuel Macron aware that he is serving the interests of the Chinese president? It is precisely to prevent Europe from adopting the hard line of the United States that Xi Jinping sought to flatter his French counterpart by rolling out the red carpet for him for three days, from April 5 to 7.

The scathing editorial of the Wall Street Journal

“The Europeans are failing to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, how can we credibly say about Taiwan: ‘Careful, if you do something wrong, we will be there?’ is the best way to do it,” Macron saw fit to add.

By saying this, the French president seems resigned to a future Chinese hegemony over Taiwan, which, in addition to stifling freedoms on the island, would have major consequences for the security of several of our partners in the region. At the same time, it deprives the West of means of pressure on Beijing. “His unnecessary comments will undermine American and Japanese deterrence against China in the Western Pacific, while encouraging American politicians who want to reduce US commitments in Europe to better resist China,” stings the wall street journal in an editorial.

Emmanuel Macron is visibly seeking to revive the myth of General de Gaulle, dreaming of a role as a “third superpower” for Europe. But times have changed. “The United States are our allies, China is our ally’s number one adversary and our main protector. How can we escape the bipolarization of the world? asks Jean-Pierre Cabestan, researcher at the Asia Center in Paris. The problem is that Macron does not want to believe that we have entered a new cold war”.

The rapprochement between China and Russia, who seek to challenge the world order, constitutes a real threat to democratic powers. The French president would be wrong to believe that Europe and the United States should not unite to face it – even if the search for greater European autonomy is necessary.

“China is very enthusiastic about what he said”

After his ambiguous remarks on the need “not to humiliate Putin” in the war in Ukraine, the French president is once again blurring France’s diplomatic message. Far from strengthening Europe, this rhetoric weakens it. “Macron is on the wrong track and above all will not be able to unite Europeans around his project if it distances itself too much from our American ally, continues Jean-Pierre Cabestan. He let himself be instrumentalized by Xi Jinping who will draw party to strengthen its position against the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific”.

Across the Atlantic, the first reactions began to fuse. “We need to know if Macron is speaking for Macron, or if he is speaking for Europe. We need to know that quickly, because China is very enthusiastic about what he said,” quipped Marco Rubio, Republican Senator from Florida.

“Pathetic from Macron, as usual”, tackle for his part the Russian opponent in exile Garry Kasparov, especially “when he has just met the Chinese dictator.” According to the former world chess champion, “Europe is at war today precisely because it tried to avoid getting involved in a crisis, when Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine for the first times in 2014.” Paris has not finished having to explain itself on these airy remarks…