“New Taipei City Hit by Communist Army Guided Missiles”. “Vessels blew up, facilities and boats were damaged in the port of Taipei.” These alerts, broadcast on the drop-down banner of the CTS television channel on April 22, caused panic… for a few minutes. Very quickly, the media was confused in excuses for having mistakenly passed these messages of prevention of the war, ready to diffuse, in case. This is to say if the fear of a Chinese invasion weighs on this island territory of 23 million inhabitants, which Beijing considers to be one of its provinces.
Anxiety over armed conflict has peaked in recent days. Since the visit to Taipei, on August 4, of Nancy Pelosi, Democratic President of the House of Representatives in the United States, and third personality of the State. The Chinese military immediately reacted and conducted an unprecedented series of military air and sea exercises for several days around the island. For its part, Taiwan accuses Beijing of preparing “an invasion”. A scenario that worries the White House, especially since US President Joe Biden pledged at the end of May to militarily defend the island in the event of an attack. Blockade, open war, status quo or fragile peace… L’Express examines four of the most likely scenarios for the future.
Scenario #1: War
An armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei is on everyone’s mind. Its specter has been hovering over the Formosa Strait for 70 years, when nationalist Kuomintang troops settled on the island, fleeing the advance of Mao’s communists. On August 10, Beijing published a White Book devoted to Taiwan, the first since 2000, and “the strongest ever written”, according to the Beijing newspaper Huanqiu Shibao. China recalls that “the use of force” is not excluded, while ensuring that it remains a “last resort, in the event of compelling circumstances”. “We would be forced to take drastic measures in the face of provocations by separatists or external forces, if they were to cross our red lines” can we read there.
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Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
“I am not optimistic: we are heading towards more crises and even perhaps a war by the end of the 2030s, dreads Jean-Pierre Cabestan, researcher at the CNRS and professor emeritus of political science at the Baptist University of Hong Kong. For two years, the Chinese have been operating more and more aggressively in the Taiwan Strait, which they consider to be Chinese territorial waters. We are witnessing a progressive nibbling of Taiwan”.
In recent months, the frequency and scale of patrols by Chinese military fighter jets and surveillance aircraft have effectively doubled around the island: its warships and destroyers have never been there. also present. Not to mention the increasing cyberattacks against government agencies in Taipei. “In 2020, Taipei accused four Chinese groups of hacking into at least ten Taiwanese government agencies and six thousand official email accounts since 2018 in an attempt to access government data and personal information,” recalls in a recent note the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an American think tank based in New York.
But questions remain: does China have the means to wage war? Can Taiwan and the United States resist? “For 30 years, China has been methodically, qualitatively and quantitatively modernizing its military means in order to be able, one day, to win this war, explains Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. One of the main objectives: to dissuade the Americans from intervene or, at least, limit their ability to intervene. According to the Taiwanese, within 5 years, China could have the means to wage a war, and perhaps even win it.
“Without external support, Taiwan probably does not have the capacity to defend itself against a Chinese attack” abounds the Council on Foreign Relations in its note. Taiwan has certainly increased its military budget to a record level, to nearly 15 billion dollars for 2022 (compared to 768 for the United States). “But China’s spending would be about twenty-two times greater than that of Taiwan,” according to the American think tank.
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Dario Ingiusto / L’Express
In the event of open war, the risk of escalation, involving foreign actors, is major. Washington’s intervention – Joe Biden promised last May to defend the island militarily in the event of an attack – raises the specter of a global conflict.
“It will be very difficult for Japan to stay out of the conflict, underlines Jean-Pierre Cabestan, author of Tomorrow China: war or peace (Ed. Gallimard). This will mainly be logistical support to the Americans via their bases in Okinawa. But it also presents the risk of Japan becoming a target for the Chinese. South Korea is opposed to the use of its bases in Korea. to support a military operation in the Taiwan Strait. The United States will have to rely on the Japanese and the Australians first.”
Scenario 2: the blockade
In the short term, this is perhaps the most likely escalation scenario, tested in full scale by Beijing between August 4 and 10 during an unprecedented show of force. Given the technological leap made by the Chinese army in recent years, it is able, at least temporarily, to isolate the island located 180 kilometers east of its coast.
It is betting on the catastrophic economic consequences that such a blockage could cause to deter Taipei. In early August, Beijing gave a preview, with retaliatory measures to Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Authorities have cut off sand exports to the island, and frozen imports of citrus fruits and some fish. the White Book published on August 10 evokes for its part “economic incentives” to reconquer Taiwan.
“In the next ten years, I do not see the landing of the Chinese army in Taiwan, believes Jean-Pierre Cabestan. I am leaning more towards a blockade of the island, and we can clearly see the beginnings of this with these maneuvers and traffic bans in the Taiwan Strait. This can be a means of asphyxiating Taiwan and forcing it to negotiate for reunification. Only the American army would have the capacity to break a blockade”.
However, the blockade option is not without risk for Chinese President Xi Jinping. “In such a scenario, the Chinese economy would be strongly impacted, insofar as 90% of the traffic which takes place in the strait is to or from Chinese ports, specifies Valérie Niquet, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research Not to mention possible counter-blockades targeting PRC oil supplies transiting through the Straits of Malacca. their allies”.
Not sure, under these conditions, that Xi Jinping will venture into a long-term blockade, despite the Communist leader’s repeated threats. “They primarily aim to demoralize the adversary, to raise the stakes with Taiwan and the United States, and to impose the idea that any resistance to Chinese actions is useless, explains Valérie Niquet.
Scenario n°3: return to the status quo
This solution, by far the wisest, however, has a prerequisite, and not the least: recognition by Taiwan of the “one China” policy – defined by the 1992 consensus. The current president, Tsai Ing-wen, elected in 2016, refuses this principle according to which the island and China are part of a single nation.
“If we project ourselves in the next ten or fifteen years, the interest of the United States will undoubtedly be, in order to avoid a war which risks becoming nuclear with China, to twist the arm of the Taiwanese so that they accept a form of agreement with Beijing, specifies the sinologist Jean-Pierre Cabestan. That they accept a formula which makes it possible to maintain democracy in Taiwan while saving the status quo with China. Is this possible? Only if the leadership changes one day in Beijing. But today, Chinese nationalism is too incandescent for such a formula as ‘one China, two governments’ operating as equals to take shape.”
And he still has, it seems, good days ahead of him. President Xi Jinping, who is due to win a historic third term this fall, has in fact made reunification with Taiwan his hobbyhorse. As long as he holds power, the warmongers will undoubtedly have the advantage. “Like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping wants to believe that China is now a superpower capable of competing with the United States and imposing its will in its area of influence in Asia, and in particular in Taiwan, continues Valérie Niquet. However, it is not certain that this vision is shared by the entire leadership within the Chinese Communist Party. The difficulties that Russia is encountering in Ukraine may have chilled some of them.”
Scenario 4: “peaceful reunification”
Officially, it is the “first choice” of the Chinese government. “We are willing to create a broad area of cooperation in order to achieve peaceful reunification”, states the recent White Book. In short: to create an environment attractive enough for the Taiwanese to return naturally to the bosom of Beijing, by “re-educating” the spirits, as recently mentioned by the Chinese ambassador to France, Lu Shaye.
The roadmap also promises economic prosperity after “reunification”. China thus proposes to strengthen cultural ties, in terms of social security, health or even to encourage better economic “integration”. This option would have the enormous advantage, for Beijing, of winning the war without having to fight, according to the precepts of the Chinese general Sun Tzu in The art of War.
A scenario that today seems most fantasized. Taiwanese have had a taste of democracy and social progress over the past 20 years. A phenomenon encouraged by the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP, pro-independence) of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who came to power in 2016. “Democratization has made possible the emergence of a Taiwanese identity and therefore of a true identity national identity, which is no longer the Chinese identity imposed by the dictatorship, notes Antoine Bondaz. This dynamic will remain regardless of the party in power.” “Peaceful reunification” has never seemed so far away.