In Turkey, the fate of Syrian refugees has become a major contentious issue and a political issue for President Erdoğan’s administration, which is preparing for elections.
In Turkey, the deep economic crisis has driven Turks and Syrians living in the country on a collision course.
Back in 2011, people fleeing the escalating violence in Syria were welcome guests who were believed to be returning home soon.
Erdoğan’s prayer trip was cancelled, the refugees stayed
The current president of Turkey, who served as prime minister in the early days of the Syrian war Recep Tayyip Erdoğan dream Bashar al-Assad about the quick fall of the administration and about his own from his prayer journey (you move to another service) To Damascus.
The journey was not made and Assad still rules in the middle of the ruins of Syria.
Turkey, on the other hand, has approximately 3.7 million Syrian refugees, according to official figures. Most of them are not going to Syria at least.
– According to our research, Syrians have little desire to return voluntarily, says the professor Murat Erdoğanwho is the director of the Migration Studies Center at Ankara University.
Erdoğan is leading a research project to collect data on the attitudes of Syrians and Turks.
– No one knows what is happening in Syria. Many Syrians have already had time to build a new life in Turkey, and a return to uncertain conditions in a ruined country is not attractive.
The president has a million dollar project
For President Erdoğan, it would be important to get rid of part of the Syrian population by luring or forcing them to leave before next year’s elections.
– But you can’t force four million people to leave. It would violate both Turkish law and international law, Professor Murat Erdoğan says
“A big political problem for the government”
For Erdoğan and his Justice and Development party, refugees are a big problem.
– This is a serious political burden for the government. Turkey has traditionally been a country from which to emigrate to other places, such as Germany. The situation is new and scary. At the same time, Turkey’s economy has collapsed and many who suffered from it blame refugees and migrants for their problems, says a researcher at the Ankara-based Tepav research institute Selim Koru.
The arguments about migrants and refugees in Turkey are familiar from the debate in other parts of Europe.
The newcomers suppress wages, take away jobs and cause more crime and other disturbances. Social media also shows stories about the abundant benefits of refugees, which are not true.
The arrivals are also said to threaten Turkish identity.
“Turkey is threatened by occupation”
The new nationalist and right-wing populist party Zafer, or Victory, promises to send Syrians and other refugees out of the country quickly.
Party chairman Ümit Özdağ claims Turkey is threatened by an insidious, quietly advancing occupation.
The short film financed by him tells about Turkey, where the Arabs have taken power and the Turks are being persecuted. The video has been viewed almost five million times on YouTube alone.
Support for the Victory party has started to grow, although according to opinion polls, there is still a long way to go to Turkey’s seven percent vote threshold.
– Ümit Özdag takes advantage of the concern and anger in society. He has placed himself at the head of this business and it further increases his popularity, says Professor Murat Erdoğan.
“All parties are tightening their line”
In his opinion, the same phenomenon can be seen in Turkey as elsewhere in Europe. Even if Özdağ and his party don’t get much support, other parties may have their own anti-refugee message.
The development is already visible in Turkey, when all the other parties are talking about the return of Syrians in one way or another.
According to Professor Erdoğan, on the contrary, Turkey should prepare for the fact that the Syrians will stay and they should be integrated in the best possible way. In the current climate in Turkey, integration talks do not get much political support.
– Integrating Syrians is not easy, it is a big community. The state did not make plans for housing these people, so a kind of ghettoization has occurred.
In several cities, refugees have applied to live with their own. Now the government has decided to limit the right of foreigners to choose their residential area.
The explosive situation continues
The economic crisis and the large number of refugees in certain areas is an explosive combination that has led to local clashes. But could something even worse lie ahead?
– The Turks’ reactions may become stronger. It may also be that there will be a backlash from the Syrians and serious clashes are possible, says Murat Erdogan.
Investigator Selim Koru The Tepav research institute believes that the proximity of the elections will calm the situation.
– Now people persevere and think that you can express your opinion in the elections. If the elections do not bring a solution, more troubled times may lie ahead, Koru reflects.
The tense situation increases people’s desire to leave and it can lead to a new movement of refugees towards Europe.
– Syrians are not returning to Syria, but more and more are considering leaving Turkey, and the development should be followed in Europe, Professor Erdoğan says.