Decisive for Syria’s future is how much Russia and Iran support the country’s administration.
The attack launched by Islamist rebels has caught the Syrian government and army completely by surprise.
The forces of the extreme Islamic organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) (translated as the Levant Liberation Organization) have managed to advance tens of kilometers in a few days. The forces have increased the territory they hold by up to three times, according to the US Live map website, which follows the events in Syria.
HTS started the attack less than a week ago. Over the weekend, it captured Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo.
The HTS forces have advanced rapidly south towards Hama, one of the largest cities in Syria. There are battles going on UA Livemap already on the outskirts of the city.
The city of Homs is 40 kilometers south of Hama. If the rebels get to Homs, Syria would be geographically divided in two.
In the west, on the shores of the Mediterranean, there is the strongest support area for the Alawite Muslims who lead the country, which in this situation would be separated from the capital Damascus.
Is the goal Hama, Homs or Damascus?
The goals of HTS are not precisely known.
Analysts, such as, for example, international Center for Strategic and International Studies research institutehave estimated that the Islamist rebels are primarily trying to strengthen their own power in the northwestern corner of Syria.
The Guest Leading Expert of the Foreign Policy Institute believes the same Olli Ruohomäki.
However, the HTS organization has publicly spoken about the overthrow of the Syrian regime and the expulsion of the Iranian forces that support Syria.
HTS entry into Hama and advance towards Homs would set Bashar al-Assad to the squeeze of the Syrian government led by
However, Ruohomäki does not believe that the administration will fall.
– It would require a mass evacuation of the army, for them to surrender one unit at a time. It’s not a completely impossible scenario, but right now it doesn’t seem like it.
Even if HTS were able to advance far towards Damascus, Ruohomäki does not believe that the organization will be able to hold the areas.
Does the Syrian government receive support from abroad?
Russia has been a strong supporter of the al-Assad regime. Even though Russia is now tightly linked to the war in Ukraine, it would not give up its bases in Syria, Ruohomäki believes. Russia has the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in its possession.
The Russian air force has carried out strikes against rebel forces but also on civilian targets.
Iran has also supported the Syrian regime. The Islamic government of Iran belongs to the Shiite Muslims, as do the Alawites who rule Syria. The people of HTS are Sunni Muslims.
Iran’s cashier in Syria has been the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, which is currently severely weakened as a result of the conflict with Israel.
Experts believe that al-Assad’s regime will not be able to regain the territories occupied by HTS without foreign supporters, said Tiina Hyyppä, PhD researcher at the University of Helsinki, in Ylen Ykkösaamu.
It remains to be seen how Iran and Hezbollah will start helping the Syrian army, which needs infantry troops.
Fragmentation is the government’s safety and threat
Ruohomäki reminds that it is difficult to predict the situation in Syria because the country’s population and its political factions are very fragmented.
There are different factions within HTS, just like there are within the Syrian army.
The position of the Al-Assad regime could be in danger if Syria’s numerous opposition groups were able to settle their differences. Considering the country’s history, this is not in the horizon, says Ruohomäki.
At the moment, the situation in the country is shocking for civilians. A civil war is fought between a regime that uses merciless violence and an extremist Islamic organization that opposes it, which, for example, the EU has classified as a terrorist organization.