Libya is affected by the surprise fall of the Assad regime in Syria last December. The western Libyan authorities in Tripoli, under the leadership of Turkey, hastened to establish relations with the new Syrian power, while the eastern authorities of Marshal Haftar welcome more and more military equipment from Russian bases installed in Syria.
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There Türkiyewhich aims to further increase its influence in the Middle East and Africa, is in the process of anchoring its presence inLibyataking advantage of the new political and diplomatic situation in the region.
Those in Libya who recently raised their voices to demand the departure of the pro-Turkish Syrian mercenaries present in Tripoli will be disappointed. Ankara’s Syrian auxiliaries, whose number is estimated at nearly 5,000 fighters in western Libya, should remain in place.
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The transfer from Syria of heavy Russian military materials to eastern Libya reinforces Ankara’s idea of remaining in Libya where it has several air and maritime military bases. It supports one of the two rival Libyan camps, in this case that of western Libya with an Islamist character.
A destabilizing role
In a Libya, which since 2011, resembles an arena for settling regional and international scores, Ankara, just like the Russiaconsiders this country to be a bridgehead for extending its influence on the African continent. These foreign presences in Libya play a destabilizing role and further increase the gap that divides the population. They make any possibility of a political solution complex.
By sending a high-ranking Libyan delegation to Damascus last week, Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dbeibah aims to gain points and strengthen his political position with Ankara. He also seeks to pull the rug out from under a possible future unified government that could take place in the country. He thus increases his chances of remaining in power even though his mandate at the head of the interim government ended at the end of 2022.
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