A former student runs towards the university of Aleppo. “This is where I was tortured by the regime,” he shouts. Like thousands of Syrians, since Bashar al-Assad’s regime regained control of the city in 2016, he has lived for years in refugee camps in the opposition zone in the north of the country. He returns home to the rest of his family and home. But this return does not represent any joy: it is not due to a democratic Syrian movement, but to Islamist militias, and in particular Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the branch of al-Qaeda financed by Turkey. This change of control of cities between Assad and the Islamists has been repeated since 2011. The difference today is that this attack is massive, modifying the map of Syria after years of relative stability.
Since the outbreak of the 2011 revolution, in the suburbs of several cities such as Homs, Aleppo and Damascus, jihadists began to infiltrate peaceful demonstrations. They were well organized and supported by Qatar and Turkey. Their project boiled down to imposing Sharia law while serving the agenda of the countries that supported them financially. The democratic revolts found themselves caught between themselves and the mafia of Bashar al-Assad. When the jihadists took control of the opposition, it suited Assad who wanted to present himself to the world as the main barrier against the terrorists, thus denying the existence of the demonstrations for a rule of law. While democratic activists were massacred in his prisons, Assad freed terrorists, who later became leaders of Islamist brigades, like Zahran Allouche. After spending three years in Sednaya prison, from 2009 to 2012, he was released for no apparent reason. A year later, Allouche founded Jaych al-Islam (“The Islam Brigade”), responsible for the torture of dozens of democratic journalists in the suburbs of Damascus.
Battles between Islamists and Assad have continued over the years, with military interventions by Iran and Russia on Assad’s side, and Turkey on the opposition side. In 2017, the Astana agreement between Russia, Turkey and Iran ended the conflicts by dividing Syria into several zones of influence. Since then, Iran and Russia, via Assad, have controlled 63% of the territory, compared to 10% under Turkish control through Islamist militias or Turkish forces deployed on the borders, and around 25% for the Kurds.
Perfect time
In recent months, Turkey has launched several calls for negotiations with the Syrian regime. Erdogan declared at the end of June that there was no reason “not to establish relations between Turkey and Syria.” This statement was repeated in October, where he announced that he had asked his Russian counterpart that the Syrian government engage in discussions with Turkey. To do this, Assad had one condition: the total withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria. For Turkey, this was not possible, pretexting the need to counter the FDS (Syrian Democratic Forces), the Kurdish army. It became clear that a political solution capable of bringing back the three million Syrian refugees living in Türkiye was no longer possible. This was the main reason why Turkey undertook the current operation, relying on Tahrir al-Sham, its armed wing in Syria.
In addition to the weakening of Hezbollah and the destruction of dozens of Iranian military bases in Syria by Israeli strikes, the Russian presence has diminished: Putin is now preoccupied by the Ukrainian offensive against Russia, supported by modern American missiles since october. It is therefore the ideal time for Turkey to make military gains on Syrian soil, not only to allow the return of refugees, but also to control the Kurds and take advantage of the period before the arrival of the new American government. Especially since Aleppo represents a strategic crossroads of capital importance in the Syrian conflict. Thanks to its geographical position, it connects northern Syria to Turkey and the rest of the country, making it a hotspot for controlling commercial and military routes.
This new conflict is reminiscent of that of October 7. Hamas was massively helped by Iran to “liberate” Palestine. Today, Tahrir al-Sham is led by Turkey to “liberate” Syria. The two militias, inspired by jihadist ideology, implement the agenda of their foreign benefactors. What distinguishes this invasion from the war in Gaza is that Tahrir al-Sham does not attack the Jewish state, but the Shiite militias of Iran and those of Assad. Both countries, Iran and Turkey, support the Islamists, but each in its own way and for its own interest in this communal war. In any case, in this country sold to others, the only victims are once again the Syrians, who are suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis and living in fear and loss.
* Writer and poet born in Damascus, Omar Youssef Souleimane participated in demonstrations against the regime of Bashar el-Assad, but, hunted by the secret services, had to flee Syria in 2012. Refugee in France, he published with Flammarion The Little Terrorist, The Last Syrian, A room in exile, and recently Being French.
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