“Switzerland should also prepare for war”. In an interview with Sonntagsblickthe Sunday edition of the Swiss daily Blick Published on March 16, former American general Ben Hodges warned Switzerland. “At the start of a war, she still seems unlikely. Three years ago, no one imagined a great attack on Russia against Ukraine,” he said. Ben Hodges has Russia in his viewfinder. “This does not mean that Russian tanks will one day enter Switzerland. But, for example, we see how Russia disrupts free trade in the Black Sea and in the North Sea of the North, thus carrying out a hybrid war. Consequently, Switzerland is not immune to that,” said the general, who commanded the American army in Europe from 2012 to 2017, at the time of the annexation of the Crimea Ukraine.
Should Switzerland rearm? This question arouses lively debates because it touches neutrality, a very sensitive question at the very heart of the identity of this country for more than two centuries. The war in Ukraine and American disengagement gave this subject to the center of concerns. In the name of this historic neutrality, Berne refused to send weapons to kyiv or authorize countries with weapons made in Switzerland to re -export them to Ukraine. Switzerland has very strict rules: it cannot deliver arms to a country at war or authorize the re -export of equipment bought several years earlier. It is “the most restrictive and strictest vision of neutrality”, in our columns, in March 2023, said Christian Bühlmann, researcher in defense policy and chief of staff of the Geneva Security Policy Center.
These rules have aroused dissatisfaction in Europe, especially in Germany, which has not been authorized to deliver ammunition to Ukraine for anti -aircraft defense carved tanks, bought in Switzerland nearly three decades before. The situation could however change soon, and Berne could in the future soften his restrictions on the export of Swiss material and war systems.
The Swiss army budget increasing
Political leaders wish to strengthen neutrality, when others wish to move away from it. Any change in the position of neutrality of Switzerland would in any case require a referendum and constitutional modifications. This process could therefore take years. Without waiting for a possible change, Switzerland has already invested in the strengthening of its defense capacities, as indicated on March 8 the outgoing Defense Minister Viola Amherd: of 4.9 billion Swiss francs (5.1 billion euros) in 2019, the army budget amounts to 5.7 billion francs (5.98 billion euros) in 2025 and should reach 9.7 billion Francs (10.17 billion euros), or 1 % of GDP, in 2032 (against 0.7 % of GDP in 2024). However, it is less than the objectives of other European countries: the target of 2 % of NATO should be increased to 3 % or 3.5 % at a summit next June, while Donald Trump insisted that European allies dedicated 5 % of their GDP.
“The Russian war of aggression has a significant impact on the security environment of Switzerland, and geopolitical upheavals recently took on a disturbing scale,” said the Minister of Defense, who announced on January 15 her resignation, which will be effective on March 31. “We are experiencing a period of great uncertainty,” she also said before the Assembly of Delegates of the Swiss Society of Officers. “Switzerland’s security is inextricably linked to that of Europe. This is why, in addition to the rearmament of the Swiss army, we have worked intensely in the deepening of cooperation in terms of security policy with the European States of NATO and the EU,” she continued.
Swiss public opinion has also been oriented towards increased cooperation in terms of security with its European neighbors, according to a study published in the summer of 2024 by the Military Academy of ETH Zurich and the Security Study Center. As relates The Financial Times (FT)this study revealed that 53 % of those questioned were in favor of strengthening links with NATO, while the average over ten years on this issue oscillated around 43 %. Only 30 % wanted to join the Alliance, which remained above the average over ten years of 23 %.
“Shock wave” of the possible American disengagement
The very likely successor of Viola Amherd to the post of Minister of Defense, Martin Pfister, elected federal advisor on March 12, is on the same wavelength as Viola Amherd on this subject. For this teacher and colonel within the army, the security question of Switzerland is “important”. As indicated The FTon March 13, at a press conference, Martin Pfister said that NATO “evolved, but we do not know in which direction”. Last February, Martin Pfister said that cooperation and joint training exercises with NATO, of which Switzerland is not a member, were “absolutely necessary”.
His appointment illustrates how much this neutral country feels the urgency of strengthening his defense, while US President Donald Trump threatens to end the American guarantees that have long supported the security of the European continent and the Alpine nation. “Transatlantic relations have experienced ups and downs, but the fact that the United States has a possible disengagement from Europe and rank on the side of Russia has caused a shock wave in Europe, including in Switzerland,” analyzed for The FT Jean-Marc Rickli, responsible for global and emerging risks at the Geneva Security Policy Center.
Matthias Zoller, secretary general of the aeronautical division, security and defense of Swissmem, a employers’ organization, has a similar opinion, evoking this new “feeling of urgency that lacked”. “Finally, the two parties – Parliament as the government – see that there is something to do and change,” he said with the British daily. In early March, Swissmem, which represents the Swiss industry, including armaments companies or manufacturers of for both civil and military use, called to support the defense sector. “The US protection shield is moving away from Europe more and more,” she said in a press release, AFP said.
“Invest massively in air defense”
The substantial increase in the army budget and the strengthening of the arms industry are among the expectations of the Swiss military industry. This sector fears to be distanced, in full reset of Europe. According to statistics from the Ministry of Economy published on March 11, exports of war materials manufactured in Switzerland decreased by 5 % in 2024, to 664.7 million Swiss francs (693 million euros), after having already dropped by 27 % in 2023, at the counter-tempting of the increase in armaments purchases elsewhere in Europe.
For General Ben Hodges, Switzerland, which applies compulsory conscription for men, should “learn to use and counter massively drones”, but also “invest massively in air defense” or “train in large -scale maneuvers” insofar as “the era of small targeted interventions is over”. “We must relearn to fight a highly equipped Russian army, as in the era of the Cold War,” he said to Blick. And too bad if the Swiss specificity of neutrality takes a hit. “I think Russia does not respect Swiss neutrality.”