Experts from Estonia and Sweden evaluate how Ukraine will go without the support of the United States.
4.3. 20: 22 • Updated 4.3. 20:55
The interruption of US help is a major problem for Ukraine, but Ukraine does not immediately fall. This is what the teacher of military strategy assesses Joakim Paasikivi Swedish National Defense College.
“Ukraine not only throws on his back and dies even if it is left without the help of the US, but the end of help causes big problems on the battlefield,” Paasikivi says.
According to him, the immediate, serious effect would be to close the Starlink satellite connections and end the intelligence cooperation.
Otherwise, Paasikivi estimates that the interruption of US support will appear in a couple of months.
– Russia is likely to try to take advantage of this. But it should be remembered that the Russian army is not in a good situation.
News channel CNN’s data The US -Ukrainian intelligence cooperation will continue for the time being.
“It’s about US domestic politics”
According to Paasikivi, the US decision does not immediately have an impact on Swedish security policy.
He emphasizes that Sweden is in the same line as the other Nordic countries, the Baltic States and Poland. All of these think that the best way to deal with the security threat of Russia is to support Ukraine.
– Although many European states share this position, complete unity has not yet been achieved in Europe, says Paasikivi.
In his view, the abolition of US support in Ukraine is primarily about US domestic politics. In that president Donald Trump appears as a user of American power against “annoying Ukrainians”.
– In reality, he weakens US authority in the world, says Paasikivi.
Kristi Raik: “Looks to Europe”
Deputy leader Kristi Raik The Estonian International Defense Research Center assesses the effects of the end of the US support in Ukraine in the video below.
Foreign Policy Expert Kristi Raik agrees with Joakim Paasikivi that Ukraine will do well for a few months without US support.
However, it is difficult to give an accurate estimate.
Another question is, according to Raik, what the psychological effect of the end of the US support in Ukraine.
– There is still a will to fight, but the eyes are on Europe. How extensively it can replace the support that is missed from the United States, says Raik.
According to Raik, Estonia is helped by the fact that the country has been trying to invest in its own defense for a long time. Therefore, he does not believe that the change in the direction of the United States in supporting Ukraine will immediately affect Estonian security policy.
– Estonia is trying to maintain his own ally relationship with the United States, but if it was to be able to count on the United States, then it could be done without it.
Estonia has been widely discussed that Estonia was excluded from the European Emergency Meeting in London over the weekend with the other Baltic countries. Raik says he believes that it was an injury or a one -off failure.
– The Baltic countries have made it clear that this should not happen again.