The Turkish parliament returns from recess on Tuesday. Sweden hopes that its NATO membership will be considered soon. Sweden’s membership is still not ratified in Hungary as well.
Only a few days ago, the situation seemed promising for Sweden’s NATO membership.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Leader of the parliamentary group of the Justice and Development party Abdullah Güler told Turkish reporters that parliament will discuss Sweden’s NATO membership in the coming weeks.
In the Turkish media, the matter was interpreted to mean that the membership will be ratified before the beginning of February.
However, in the next few weeks there is a deadline that has been heard before regarding the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership. The Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee approved the ratification on Boxing Day, and now it is the turn of the plenary session.
Sweden’s NATO path still has at least one problem, which is not related to Sweden but to the contentious relations between the United States and Turkey.
Without certainty about the F-16 fighter jets that Turkey is seeking from the United States, Sweden’s NATO membership will still not progress. Turkey clearly does not trust the United States and accuses it, among other things, of supporting Turkey’s enemies.
The battles between Turkey and the PKK tighten the atmosphere
The theme of the enemy is hotly topical after Turkey has lost more than 20 of its soldiers in clashes with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the northern parts of Iraq in recent weeks.
Turkey has already declared many times that the “final victory” is close, and the PKK is weak inside the country’s borders.
Turkey has recently attacked both Iraq and northern Syria. Pictures from Syria and based on the news there, the electricity distribution and water plants of the area seem to have been selected as targets.
The PKK, which initially demanded an independent Kurdish state, has been fighting the Turkish armed forces since the 1980s. Today, the organization demands self-government for the Kurds of Turkey. Both the United States and the EU consider the PKK a terrorist organization.
“The United States supports the PKK”
However, in Turkey’s view, the United States maintains contact with the PKK through the Syrian Kurds.
The United States has supported the Syrian Kurds as part of the fight against the extremist group ISIS. In Turkey’s opinion, the Kurdish regime in Syria is one and the same as the PKK.
Those supporting the administration of President Erdoğan in the media stories have been told of PKK guerrillas being armed by the US. Guerrillas who attacked Turkish soldiers have been transported in US helicopters, according to the claims of anonymous security sources. There is no evidence of this, but the anger towards the United States also hinders Sweden’s NATO membership.
There have also been new claims about “Swedish weapons” found in the PKK, which have been talked about publicly in Turkey before. Among other things, state news agency Anatolia has claimed that the PKK is in possession of Swedish anti-tank weapons. However, the same type of weapon manufactured under license in the United States has been delivered to the Iraqi army.
Quick turns possible
Despite the strong public threat, quick turnarounds are always possible in Turkey.
President Erdoğan and his administration have shown foreign policy agility in the past. That is, the president can change his position quickly if necessary, if, for example, progress is made in arms sales with the United States. Since the media is largely under the control of the government, things can always be explained in the best way.
The keys to the solution seem to lie in Washington and not so much in Stockholm.
However, Turkey has all along accused Sweden of being too lenient towards Kurdish groups and other enemies defined by Turkey. These accusations can also be resurrected if necessary.