“Long-term unemployment risks getting stuck” was a frequent warning at the beginning of the corona pandemic and the group that had been out of work for over a year grew for a long time. It was not until late autumn last year that long-term unemployment began to fall sharply.
Now, about 30,000 of the 189,000 who were classified as long-term unemployed in the summer of 2021 have come to work. Anders Ljungberg, acting director of analysis at the Swedish Public Employment Service, states that it has decreased “quite well” so far during the year.
But one group has remained. The number of people who have been without a job for more than two years continues to grow and ends up further behind in the queue when companies have to hire new employees.
– A chain of efforts is required for the group with longer enrollment periods to return to the labor market, says Anders Ljungberg.
A total of 98,810 people have been openly unemployed and applicants for more than 24 months, according to the agency’s latest statistics. At the same time, there are a record number of vacancies listed at the Swedish Public Employment Service, and industries such as hotels or restaurants are screaming for labor.
Problems existed even before the pandemic, and now seem to be coming back. Possibly to a greater extent than before.
– This is one of the questions we ask in our surveys now. The shortage rate was on the rise last autumn and a not entirely wild guess is that it will have increased somewhat here in the spring. But we will come back to that with a description later.
What do you do about the matching problem?
– We try to use the toolbox we have. It is primarily training initiatives, often regular training, and if that is not possible, it may be an internship or a shorter labor market training. It is primarily training efforts that are needed.
Are new measures needed?
– We must continue to work with what many of these issues are about: long-term efforts and close cooperation, not least with the municipalities. We are building up the network of contacts again and signing agreements with the municipalities. It is important to continue on that path because that is the key to success, says Ljungberg.
Many companies suffered severely during the pandemic when the restrictions paralyzed operations. In several industries, it is still argued that the workforce that was not needed then has changed course now that it is needed again.
According to Anders Ljungberg, this is most noticeable in close-knit industries, such as hotels and restaurants or in trade, which were affected at an early stage by restrictions.
– We now see that demand is starting up again and there is a pent-up need, but we have also been able to state that some left the profession during this period to retrain for other professions. There we see quite big challenges, says Anders Ljungberg and adds:
– We see in our own forecast from last autumn that many of the workplaces that want to recruit signal that they experience a shortage of labor. It is much higher than previous deficiency levels.
Unemployment as a whole has fallen from 9.2 percent to 6.8 percent since the pandemic’s peak in July 2020. Just over 344,000 people were registered with the Swedish Public Employment Service as openly unemployed in April 2022.
The trade association Svenskt Handel recently warned that record high inflation, supply problems and the economic downturn could be a dangerous triple blow to jobs.
“As we now face tougher times, we are obviously worried that our member companies’ propensity to hire will decrease,” Svensk Handels CEO Sofia Larsen has previously told TT.
Anders Ljungberg believes that the world situation and the economy can have some effect on the labor market, but does not seem quite as gloomy as Sofia Larsen at Svensk Handel.
– Unemployment has fallen rapidly here during the year and we believe that it will continue, but perhaps not at the same pace, he says and explains:
– There are a lot of uncertainties in the outside world that affect and are a little difficult to assess right now. It is not known how long the war in Ukraine will last or what will happen to inflation, and whether it could affect consumption or employment plans in the long run.
Of the approximately 38,000 Ukrainian the refugees who have so far applied for a residence or work permit in Sweden, just under 500 have registered with the Swedish Public Employment Service so far. According to Anders Ljungberg, there are very few in relation to how many have come and fewer than what the authority had expected.
– It can be interpreted in different ways. First of all, one should realize that more than 15,000 of these 38,000 are children, and as I understand it, they have some kind of distance education from Ukraine. Then you can assume that the mother can help and for that reason can not actively seek work, says Ljungberg.
Another reason may be that many have managed on their own, without the help of the Swedish Public Employment Service.
– We have seen that employers have been very willing to set up and recruit and it can also be the case that you go through a private recruitment company.
Do you expect more people to sign up?
– It depends a bit on what happens. The Swedish Migration Agency’s forecasts said from the beginning that there would be around 80,000 before the summer. Now it has been changed to about 80,000 on a full-year basis. But we have planned and prepared to be able to handle even more, says Anders Ljungberg.
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