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Full-screen manager Ahn-Za Hagström about the terrorist threat to Sweden. Photo: Fredrik Sandberg/TT
The number of threats to Sweden has decreased – and Sweden is now no longer seen as a priority terror target, according to the National Center for Terror Threat Assessment.
-What we can see is that since autumn 2023 Sweden has gradually no longer mentioned, says Ahn-Za Hagström, head of NCT.
The fact that Sweden has gone from being a priority goal to again being a “legitimate” is related to Hama’s full -scale attack on Israel, which led to violent Islamists shifting the focus.
But NCT emphasizes that there are still uncertainties.
-We would like to see that this is a circumstance that exists, and is not just about the spotlight being directed elsewhere, says Ahn-Za Hagström.
As before, the largest terrorist threat to Sweden is estimated to come from solitary violent Islamists or right-wing extremists attacking with simple means such as vehicles, knitting or firearms.
Known Islamist account
The other day, a Salafist account, which was the driving force behind the LVU campaign, is stated to have noticed TV4’s audio analysis which claims that someone should have shouted “you should be removed from Europe” during the mass shooting in Örebro, according to SVT.
Is it something you feel worried about this being picked up by such an actor?
– There is something the security police, of course, follows, in terms of intention and ability, if this could affect someone’s intention, says Hagström.
NCT notes that Sweden continues to be seen as Islamic, and that the threats from violent Islamists can flare up again.
The perpetrator in Örebro is also reported to have been praised in right -wing extremist videos on Tiktok. But the motive for the mass shooting is so far unknown.
In order for an act to be investigated as a terrorist offense, several requirements are set, according to the NCT manager. The perpetrator’s intention must have been to inhave the fear of a population or population group, or to seriously harm the state Sweden.
– These are intentions that you rarely know when the act is committed or just right after.
She emphasizes that it is a matter for the prosecutor.
– But if you look back at other events, there has often been some type of declaration or community where the person has been, virtually or in the real world, which indicated different types of intentions.
Foreign power
Although the propaganda has subsided, the terror threat level remains on a four on the five -degree scale. A contributing reason is that foreign powers such as Russia and Iran are considered prepared to commit documents that could be classified as terrorist offenses.
Has foreign power become a greater threat to terror than before?
– It’s hard to compare. We can go back to the 70s and see that Sweden was really an arena for other countries’ terrorist actions then. But several circumstances in recent years have meant that we have chosen to lift it as a phenomenon, says Hagström.
Fact Terror Threat 2025
The terror threat level remains at a high level, four on the five -degree scale, following a decision by the Säpo chief in January.
Sweden has gone from being a priority target for Islamist terrorist organizations to again being a “legitimate” goal.
The main terrorist threat to Sweden in 2025 comes from single -acting violent Islamists or right -wing extremists.
Foreign power continues to have an interest in using agents to commit violence in Sweden that could be classified as terrorist offenses. It can be anything from sabotage to attacks against Israeli and Jewish interests.
The trend with more underage players continues.
Source: NCT (a permanent working group with personnel from FRA, MUST and SÄPO)
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