Sweden in NATO – then Turkey gets “the whole cake”

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Facts: Tours around Turkey’s fighter jets

Turkey has received a total of 270 F-16s since the country first acquired the model in 1987.

In 2017, Turkey surprised NATO when it bought the S-400 air defense system from Russia.

Washington’s response was to suspend cooperation on and a planned sale of the super-modern F-35 aircraft to Turkey.

Since then, the discussions have instead been about the older fighter aircraft F-16.

The sale must be approved by the US Congress, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken has not indicated a timetable for approval and delivery.

Turkey has a total of 270 F-16 fighter jets – and wants 40 more from the US. However, the issue is blocked by Congress and there is no information on when the giant deal can be completed.

But this week it was reported about a smaller package concerning F-16s to Turkey. According to information, Turkey will be allowed to buy upgraded software for its current fleet of F-16 planes, to a value of the equivalent of up to 2.5 billion Swedish kronor.

The announcement is presented relatively close to Turkey finally accepting Finland into NATO. It is no coincidence, according to Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus in political science and affiliated with the Institute for Foreign Affairs.

— This kind of thing does not happen by chance, it is connected to Turkey’s behavior in general.

— The message is that “it was good that you let Finland in, but you won’t get the big package until you also let Sweden in”.

Send “positive signal”

According to the Reuters news agency, the aim was to send “a positive signal” to Turkey. Partly for the approval, but also because the tense relationship with neighboring Greece seems to have softened somewhat lately.

However, the deal with the 40 F-16 planes is still on hold. It is worth the equivalent of over 200 billion Swedish kroner, and in addition to updated and modernized fighter aircraft, hundreds of bombs and fighter robots are included.

Hallenberg is convinced that the larger package is part of the pressure from the US to get Sweden approved.

— But American officials will not say publicly that the F-16 is a reward for Turkey letting Sweden and Finland in. But they will say that “it is a sign of our appreciation of Turkey as a key ally” or something similar.

Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus and expert on US foreign and security policy attached to the Foreign Policy Institute. Stock photography. Not only NATO entry

But it is likely that it is not only Swedish NATO entry that is on the table in the negotiations on new F-16 planes.

The US also wants assurances that Turkey will ease tensions with Greece for good, refrain from an invasion of northern Syria and push through sanctions against Russia, according to Reuters.

According to analysts, this could possibly anger Turkey, which has previously expressed concerns that the sale is being “taken hostage” in the NATO process and that the American demands will never end.

At the same time, Turkey also has an ace up its sleeve, Hallenberg points out.

— If Turkey does not get the F-16 from the Americans, the risk is that they will eventually buy from the Russians or the Chinese. And the Americans know it too. It is a pressure point that the Turks have.

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