The whirling dervish struck again. Monday, July 10 in the morning, Recep Tayyip Erdogan categorically rejects any entry into NATO from Sweden, considered then as a country “favorable to terrorists”. The same evening, the Turkish president gives the green light to Stockholm. What has changed ? Regarding Sweden’s support for Kurdish refugees, nothing. But for the delivery of American F-16 fighter jets to Ankara, everything.
Joe Biden has unblocked Turkish blackmail, and he only half hides it. After a troop review in Vilnius, capital of Lithuania which hosts the NATO summit on Tuesday, the American president replied informally to a handful of journalists on the spot. When asked about the reason for the Turkish reversal, the octogenarian answers, as usual, with a wink: “In your opinion…” F-16s against Sweden in NATO. Erdogan succeeds.
A “brief honeymoon” with the West
Since his re-election on May 24, the Turkish president has changed his tone with the West. After campaigning under the threat of an American-orchestrated coup, he is demanding an interview with Biden as soon as he has the opportunity. After booing the European Union and its “LGBT ideology”, here he is demanding a resumption of talks to bring Turkey into the EU. “After the presidential election, there will be a brief honeymoon between Ankara and the West, simply because Turkey wants American weapons, warned us Sinan Ciddi, Turkey specialist at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Once his victory is assured, Erdogan does not need to block Sweden’s membership of NATO, which he has mainly used to gain points in the polls by showing that he can stand up to the West. “
In recent days, the stay gave concrete pledges to the Western camp on the war in Ukraine, receiving Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul and publicly supporting kyiv’s membership of NATO. He also authorized the return home of five Ukrainian commanders, captured by Russia during the capture of the Azovstal factory and in captivity in Turkey, angering the Kremlin.
But let’s not be fooled. These gestures of goodwill, although real and positive for our relations with Turkey, do not cost Erdogan much. On the other hand, they bring him big. Ankara will have access to American F-16 fighter jets, while retaining its Russian S-400 missile defense system. Turkey has obtained a toughening of Swedish laws against the Kurds, while welcoming a new military ally of weight. Its trade relations with Europe will undoubtedly take off again in the coming months, while continuing to circumvent the international sanctions aimed at Russia. Facing NATO, Erdogan had all the cards in hand. He seems to have won the game.