Newly weighted opinion figures show that Kamala Harris leads with 48.2 percent against Donald Trump’s 46.7 percent on Tuesday evening.
But according to Fouad Youcefi, Harris’s national lead has shrunk.
– And in many of the wave master states, Harris’ lead has been reduced or even erased, he says.
Wisconsin and Nevada
Among other things, Harris seems to have lost his grip on Wisconsin. A couple of months ago, she led by several percentage points – now it’s a matter of tenths, according to opinion figures.
– Then Harris led by 3.5 percentage points – now there is only a difference of 0.4 percentage points, which corresponds to approximately 13,000 votes if the same number of votes as in the last election, says Fouad Youcefi.
In Nevada, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris for the first time and is now leading by 0.2 percentage points.
– That corresponds to a difference of 2,800 votes. Then you understand how extremely even it is, says Fouad Youcefi.
Pennsylvania is another major wave master state. In the 2020 election, only one vote separated the two candidates Biden and Trump in a small electoral district, District Number 5, in Dauphin County.
– For Donald Trump, it’s a lot about going to sparsely populated counties around Pennsylvania, says Fouad Youcefi.
Will reach 270 electors
To win the US presidential election, 270 electors are required.
– If you disregard margins of error, it looks right now that Donald Trump wins the election, but with a fairly small margin. This means that there is a stress, both for Kamala Harris and her campaign but also for Donald Trump to hold on to the possible lead he has, says Fouad Youcefi.